By Abdifatah Mahat Abdirahman
“As Foreign Aid Declines, the Nation Must Choose Between Self-Reliance and Continued Dependence.”
For more than 30 years, Somalia has relied heavily on international assistance for much of its security, governance, and economy. Massive investment totalling billions of dollars have been made available by foreign governments and international organizations to support peacekeeping, humanitarian assistance, institutional development as well aseconomic recovery. All of these necessary support is slowly waning. With ever-changing donor priorities and declining foreign funding, Somalia faces one of the most challenging periods in its recent history: can it develop a stable, self-reliant state before external assistance diminishes further?
The reduction in foreign assistance is particularly difficult at this period of time. The estimated loss of external government, human rights, and development funding in Somalia in a single year ranges from US$450 million to US$600 million. In 2025 alone, due to a shift in the United States’ foreign assistance policy, hundreds of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) had to suspend or terminate programs, resulting in service gaps across sectors such as healthcare, education, food security, and community development. These advances have brought to light the Nation’s reliance on foreign partners.
Somalia has not been short of opportunities to lessen that dependency. Unbeknownst to the people, the international community had handed down three monumental milestones over the last few years that would set the Nation on the road back to an elusive self-reliance. First, international peacekeeping forces were deployed to support the establishment of effective Somali security institutions, and to then, gradually hand over responsibility for its national security from the international forces to Somali forcesthemselves. Secondly, the lifting of the United Nations arms embargo in 2023 allowed the sitting government to enhance its military capacity and prepare for the eventual withdrawal of foreign troops. In particular, debt relief also gave Somalia a new beginning in its economic development, providing the chance to enhance domestic revenue collection, better fiscal management, and fund the government’s operations from its own resources.
Still, a host of expected outcomes remain unrealized. Somalia’s heavy reliance on foreign financial assistance to support large portions of its national budget remains high, and domestic taxation remains paltry, weak and fragmented between the Federal Government and the Federal Member States. Harmonization of these inroad revenue systems and economic governance has been hindered by chronic political differences. As a result, the country has been unable to produce its own resources to meet the government’s needs.
The security situation is still far from ideal. Though security forces in Somalia have been expanding, international security partners ever so remain irreplaceable for the logistics, training, operational (field) support, and intelligencegathering. The United Nations Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS) is poised to close shop in December 2026. Presentlyimportant questions include the preparedness of national institutions to assume responsibility. As a result of the lack of secure and sound economic institutions, investment and long-term development are becoming increasingly difficult to sustain.
Besides obviously the political question, there is another equally present obstacle in Somalia’s recovery; endless political crises, institutional gridlock, and uncertainty which continually arise during multiple electioneering periods and when government mandates expire. There is a lack of cooperation between some, if not all, of the Federal Member States and the Federal Government. This always leads to a lack of any semblance of national cohesion and is accompanied by deep seated mistrust. On the other hand, the opposition has regularly holds the government responsible but never seems to present a generally accepted alternative national plan to the government on a consensus reaching.
The issues in these recurrent events are historically structural problems. Somalia does not have a single efficient national currency to facilitate a modern financial system. Governance institutions remain very limited, and the lack of public trust stems from runaway corruption, with clan politics prevalent in every piece of political decision-making. Another factor is the continued present danger from terrorist groups that wholly diverts the government’s attention and resources from long-term development and plans.
The situation is even more urgent today thanks to recent developments. Major international institutions, such as the European Union and the World Bank, have been said to withhold funding due to governance issues, security, and institutional problems. The issues raised are the continuing insecurity on the MSR (Main Supply Route) Mogadishu – Baidoa, the purported politicization of the national army, and precarious relations with Federal Member States. Without the much needed external funding, it will be more difficult to meet the monthly costs of government, which runs on sum of over $35m.
Somalia is not doomed to remain this way. There are numerous opportunities for sustainable growth in the country if the country were to take decisive actions towards reform. To develop a harmonized taxation system and domestic revenue, enhanced cooperation between the Federal Government and Federal Member States which is every bit asessential. Security sector reforms should be based on the values of professionalism, accountability and cohesion. It should, however, not be unduly influenced by daily politics. Likewise, there is an urgent need to have credible national electoral systems that would enhance public confidence in the electoral process and alleviate the occurrence of political crises every four years.
Economic diversification needs to be driven as a nation-wide priority. Agriculture, livestock farming, fisheries, ports and digital technology are among the industries that can contribute to the productive capacity and employment for the ever increasing youth population. Financial institutions can be strengthened, transparency in the allocation/management of public funding can be reworked, and private-sector investments can be encouraged over time to minimize dependence on external donors.
International partners will, in the foreseeable future, continue to play an important role in the Somali recovery process. However, external support can’t replace good local governance and leadership. Finally, sustainable peace and development will rely on Somali institutions that can resolve security, tax and political problems peaceably and provide public services to the Somali people.
Whether we see it or not, this is a pivotal moment in Somalia’s history. The days of boundless support from abroad are behind us, and reform within the country is becoming more than anecessity. The future, strong or unstable, of the Nation, depends on the decisions of the Nation’s political, institutional and public leaders over the next few months and years. The decision is easy: build stronger national institutions that can face and support the Nation’s future, or be subject to outsiders’ conditions. The fate of Somalia will depend on what it does now.
