The newly appointed African Union (AU) Chairperson, Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, made his first official visit to Somalia—a move that Villa Somalia swiftly labeled a major diplomatic victory. The optics of prioritizing Mogadishu as his debut destination were meant to project solidarity and pan-African unity. However, beyond the ceremonial handshakes and scripted communiqués lies a more complex reality that calls for vigilance rather than celebration.
Somalis have long memories, and the shadow of Djibouti’s political interference in Somali affairs looms large. Youssouf, a former Foreign Minister of Djibouti, was a key figure during a period marked by aggressive diplomatic maneuvers, including alleged attempts to undermine former President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo’s administration. Many still recall the near-fatal targeting of former Somali Intelligence Chief Fahad Yasin—an incident that could have escalated if not for the timely intervention of Turkish Airlines, which refused to allow a flight to depart without him. Can Youssouf dissociate himself from Djibouti’s past meddling, or will his tenure at the AU perpetuate the same interventions, particularly with Somalia’s next electoral cycle on the horizon?
Beyond personalities, institutional concerns further undermine confidence in the AU’s role in Somalia. Despite hosting an AU-led security mission for nearly two decades, Somalia remains conspicuously absent from any medium to senior technical roles within the AU bureaucracy. This glaring exclusion raises questions about whether the AU truly considers Somalia a partner or merely a battleground for its own operational presence.
Officially, Villa Somalia proclaimed that discussions with Youssouf focused on “enhancing cooperation in key areas, including regional security, economic integration, governance reforms, and institutional development.” Yet, these talking points obscure the fundamental disarray plaguing the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). Experts and insiders alike decry the mission’s chronic disorganization, poor coordination, and lack of strategic vision.
Moreover, international partners are growing weary of bankrolling AU-led security operations that have yielded little in terms of tangible results. A European partner bluntly described Somali security forces as “ineffective and static,” a sentiment widely shared among Somalis who believe their national army could defeat Al-Shabaab—if only they received the same level of funding and logistical support as AU forces.
The AU’s military footprint in Somalia tells a story of stagnation rather than success. Despite extensive resources and personnel, Al-Shabaab remains deeply entrenched, regularly demonstrating its capacity to strike even within the outskirts of Mogadishu.
For nearly two decades, AU forces have largely remained in fortified bases, recycling outdated counterinsurgency tactics rather than adapting to the evolving security landscape. Meanwhile, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s 2024 pledge to reclaim full national security control has come and gone, replaced instead by an agreement to further sustain AUSSOM’s presence—a move that signals continuity rather than progress.
Broader questions about the AU’s credibility and effectiveness further compound concerns. The organization frequently invokes pan-African rhetoric, yet remains heavily dependent on external financing, with over 60% of its operational budget sourced from Western donors. Even the AU headquarters in Addis Ababa—a symbol of its supposed self-reliance—was funded and built by China.
In conflict mediation, the AU has been conspicuously sidelined, with Qatar and Kenya taking the lead in negotiations for crises in South Sudan, Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. If the AU struggles to broker peace elsewhere, how can it convincingly claim to chart a viable path forward for Somalia?
Youssouf’s visit to Mogadishu may have been designed as a diplomatic overture, but it is far from a substantive shift in AU-Somali relations. With unresolved security dilemmas, historical distrust, and a credibility crisis at its core, the AU’s engagement with Somalia requires rigorous scrutiny. Until real structural reforms materialize—both within Somalia’s security apparatus and the AU’s own governance framework—such visits will remain little more than political theater, masking deep-seated dysfunctions that continue to plague the continent’s premier intergovernmental body.