By Abdi Moalim
One of the most pressing issues affecting Somalia, albeit regrettably among the least addressed by the political elite, media, and public platforms despite its potentially devastating consequences, is the accelerating threat of global hunger and food insecurity. While the conflict in the Middle East particularly the escalating war between Iran and Israel with other major powers becoming indirectly involved and potentially drawn in more directly continues to dominate international headlines, its impact reaches far beyond the region. This confrontation threatens to disrupt trade corridors strain energy supplies and destabilize financial markets, increasing the likelihood of economic shocks that would disproportionately harm fragile nations. Compounding this is the ongoing war in Ukraine, which has already caused severe disruptions in global food and fuel chains. Together these intersecting crises are escalating the risk of famine.
Somalia remains vulnerable. As international donors begin to revise their priorities, many of them now turning inward to address rising domestic pressures assistance to countries like Somalia may steadily decline. The implications for Somalia’s stability humanitarian needs and development trajectory are profound.
Misplaced Attention in a Time of Fragility
Rather than confronting these imminent threats, much of Somali public discourse continues to be misdirected. Various segments of society have become preoccupied with external conflicts, reacting to the Middle East crisis with a sense of misplaced allegiance. Some interpret the war through a religious populist lens, framing it as a binary struggle between Islam and disbelief, often without nuance or factual grounding. Others see it as a sectarian conflict between Shia and Jewish groups, drawing conclusions based more on inherited bias than informed analysis. For some the conflict has become mere spectacle consumed through headlines social media and sensationalised coverage without any deeper engagement. Meanwhile, the majority of Somalis remain focused on daily survival too consumed by economic hardship and insecurity to involve themselves in global affairs. A quieter more contemplative segment argues for strategic neutrality, recognizing that entanglement in foreign conflicts would only intensify Somalia’s internal fragility.
This collective misalignment of attention comes at a perilous moment. Somalia’s political leadership remains gridlocked over the electoral transition. The inability to reach consensus threatens to erode what little political stability exists. The time for rivalry and short term calculation has passed. What is required now is a shift in national mindset and a redirection of focus toward Somalia’s most urgent priorities.
Early Warning as a Missed Imperative
Among the most critical shortcomings is the lack of a capable and coordinated early warning system. In a world increasingly shaped by rapid and far reaching disruptions from political unrest to environmental degradation, Somalia’s limited institutional foresight remains a serious vulnerability.
The global ramifications of the Middle East and Ukraine conflicts were not unforeseeable. Analysts had long signalled that energy and food systems would come under strain. Somalia, however, responded too late lacking the structures and political will to act in anticipation. There is no coordinated mechanism in place to forecast donor withdrawal commodity inflation or cascading supply chain failures.
This gap reflects a strategic blind spot. Early warning is not simply about gathering data, it requires leadership coordination and above all the ability to act decisively before crisis becomes collapse. Had an effective early warning framework existed, Somalia might have mitigated some of the current pressures by preparing in advance diversifying suppliers mobilizing local production and informing the public of likely outcomes.
The cost of this oversight will be high if it is not corrected. Somalia cannot afford to continue navigating global volatility without a plan. Preparedness is no longer optional it is existential.
A Way Forward: Reclaiming Focus and Building Resilience
This moment presents a narrow but vital opportunity for national reflection. Rather than echoing global narratives Somalia must confront its own challenges with clarity and purpose. Resource management institutional reform and the long delayed process of state building must be prioritized. The expectation that external actors will intervene must be abandoned once and for all.
Somalia’s current position removed from the direct confrontations of global superpowers offers strategic breathing space. This neutrality whether intentional or circumstantial provides a rare window to rebuild from within. As those who once shaped Somalia’s fate turn inward to address their own crises, a unique opportunity emerges for self correction and national renewal.
Food security must be treated as a non negotiable national priority. With the threat of famine steadily rising the country must move from reactive dependency to proactive resilience. This requires immediate investment in agriculture local production climate adaptive practices and grassroots preparedness. Delaying action will only ensure that the next national emergency is not marked by bullets or ballots but by widespread hunger economic collapse and social breakdown.
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Abdi Moalim is an analyst specializing in security and political affairs, with a focus on early warning in fragile states and regional geopolitical dynamics.