Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud finds himself in an increasingly precarious position with just over a year left in his administration. Once buoyed by strong Western backing that helped him unseat his predecessor, Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, the President is now facing a cold shoulder from key allies the Western nations and the United Arab Emirates.
Leaked Letter: US Dissatisfaction Turns to Coercion
Just a day after returning from Ankara, a highly sensitive and confidential letter from President Mohamud to the U.S. President Donald Trump was leaked under unclear circumstances. The letter, a desperate bid for renewed American engagement, offers the U.S. exclusive operational control over key strategic Somali locations, including Bosaso and Berbera—ports that are part of Puntland and Somaliland, respectively.
“Somalia is prepared to offer the United States exclusive operational control over the Balidogle and Berbera airbases, as well as the Port of Berbera and Bosaso. These strategically positioned assets provide an opportunity to bolster American engagement in the region, ensuring uninterrupted military and logistical access while preventing external competitors from establishing a presence in this critical corridor.” – Excerpt from the leaked letter.
The emergence of this letter signals growing U.S. dissatisfaction with President Mohamud’s administration. High-level sources suggest the leak itself may be a coercive move by Washington to pressure Villa Somalia into compliance with U.S. geopolitical objectives. The Somali leader has reportedly been summoned by two Western Ambassadors in Mogadishu for what are expected to be tough discussions upon his return from Ankara.
Sources familiar with Mohamud’s thinking told Somali Stream that the letter stemmed from the unsatisfactory outcome of his recent visit to Abu Dhabi, a longtime ally that has since turned into a political adversary. The UAE has been actively lobbying for Somaliland’s recognition, creating friction between the two countries. Tensions became apparent when Somalia issued a congratulatory statement following the Sudanese Armed Forces’ (SAF) seizure of the Presidential Palace in Khartoum, a move seen as counter to UAE interests.
Facing growing isolation, Villa Somalia appears to have reached an impasse and has now adopted a more assertive approach—seeking to court Washington with strategic military and economic incentives in Berbera and Bosaso. Notably, the UAE already controls both ports through DP World, further complicating the geopolitical calculus. The UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Sheikh Shakhbout Bin Nahyan, recently led a high-level delegation to Mogadishu, meeting with President Mohamud at the airport—an encounter that underscored the fragile state of their relations.
Western Powers Withdraw Support
The political landscape has shifted dramatically since President Mohamud’s election, when Western Embassies played a pivotal role in rallying support behind him. Now, key international partners—including the U.S., UK, and the European Union—are signaling their discontent by withdrawing backing at a critical time.
The UK and U.S. have notably ignored the political crisis between Puntland and the Federal Government, despite Puntland’s open boycott of the National Consultative Council (NCC) alongside Jubaland leader Ahmed Mohamed Islam (Madobe).
Western actors have issued an ultimatum, demanding that Mohamud immediately convene a reconciliation meeting in Mogadishu that includes all major stakeholders—or face serious consequences, as sources privy to the meeting told us.
Even the much-publicized national identification and voter registration campaign, once hailed as a landmark step toward direct elections, is struggling due to a lack of financial and logistical backing from Western partners. The dream of ‘one person, one vote’ is now on the brink of collapse, with many anticipating a forced return to Somalia’s traditional indirect election system.
UN’s Unsettling Move: The Appointment of James Swan
In a further sign of international frustration, the United Nations announced on Friday evening the appointment of James Swan as the UN Secretary General’s Special Representative for Somalia and the Head of United Nations Transitional Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNTMIS). This move is widely interpreted as a warning shot—a sign that the International Community is considering stronger intervention due to concerns over governance, corruption, and political instability in Somalia.
Al-Shabaab War Efforts Face A Crisis
Beyond the political turmoil, President Mohamud’s campaign against Al-Shabaab is also faltering. The counteroffensive, once a central pillar of his presidency, is now suffering from dwindling international support.
U.S. and UK military assistance, once instrumental in airstrikes and intelligence operations, has been significantly scaled back.
The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) is facing financial constraints, with international donors reluctant to continue funding an operation they view as stagnant.
Turkey remains Somalia’s only reliable military ally, providing training, air support, and financial aid for the Somali National Army (SNA). However, even Ankara’s assistance may not be enough to sustain the war effort.
Meanwhile, Al-Shabaab continues to launch deadly attacks, exploiting the political disarray and weakening government control over strategic regions.
The Road Ahead: Political Survival or Collapse?
President Mohamud is now at a crossroads. With external backing dwindling, political infighting growing, and the security situation worsening, his administration must navigate an increasingly hostile landscape. The coming months will be decisive—will he manage to rally support, bridge political divides, and regain international confidence, or will his presidency unravel under mounting pressure?
As Somalia teeters on the brink, one thing is clear: the political crisis has reached a critical point, and the choices made now will shape the country’s trajectory for years to come.