As the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) celebrate their strategic gains, including the recapture of the Presidential Palace in Khartoum, a compelling narrative of diplomatic maneuvering unfolds, with Saudi Arabia emerging as a dominant force, effectively countering the UAE’s influence in the volatile Sudanese conflict. This diplomatic triumph, punctuated by a series of high-stakes engagements, underscores the shifting power dynamics within the Horn of Africa and the broader Middle East.
At the heart of this diplomatic pivot is Saudi Deputy Foreign Minister Eng. Waleed bin Abdulkarim Alkhariji’s strategic shuttle diplomacy, a whirlwind tour that took him to the capitals of South Sudan, Kenya, Chad, and Ethiopia. This orchestrated campaign, while shrouded in official secrecy, delivered a clear and unequivocal message: a concerted regional effort to dissuade support for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and to rally behind a Saudi-led vision for Sudanese stability.
Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic offensive presented a compelling narrative, emphasizing the imperative to preserve Sudan’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, a vision that notably excluded the UAE. Al-Khariji’s meeting with Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gideon Timothy in Addis Ababa provided a glimpse into this strategy, with both nations issuing statements emphasizing dialogue and respect for Sudanese sovereignty. This alignment signaled a significant diplomatic victory for Riyadh, consolidating regional support and isolating the UAE’s destabilizing influence.
The backdrop to this diplomatic showdown is the renewed intensity of the Sudanese conflict, which has exposed deep divisions within the region. The contrasting diplomatic trajectories of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, both engaged in a flurry of high-level visits to key regional capitals, underscore the starkly divergent approaches to the Sudanese crisis.
While Saudi Arabia meticulously cultivated regional consensus, the UAE scrambled to salvage its diminishing influence. On the same day as Al-Khariji’s visit, UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Sheikh Shakhbout Nahyan Al Nahyan made an unannounced trip to Addis Ababa, seeking to bolster support for the RSF. However, his efforts were met with resolute neutrality from Ethiopian leaders, a clear indication of Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic ascendancy.
Furthermore, the UAE’s diplomatic outreach extended to Mogadishu, where Minister of State for Foreign Affairs sought to secure Somali support for the RSF. However, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, displaying a rare moment of diplomatic defiance and political maturity, firmly rejected the UAE’s entreaties. This decisive stance, described by Somali diplomats as an act of “diplomatic courage,” underscored Mogadishu’s commitment to regional stability and its refusal to be swayed by external pressures.
Saudi Arabia’s calculated diplomatic maneuvers, including pre-emptive meetings with the Sudanese ambassador in Riyadh and strategic visits to strategic regional states, have culminated in a significant regional realignment. The declarations of neutrality from South Sudan and Ethiopia have effectively neutralized the UAE’s destabilizing influence, bolstering the SAF and solidifying Saudi Arabia’s position as a key arbiter in the Sudanese conflict.
This diplomatic triumph represents a significant blow to the UAE’s regional ambitions, exposing its isolation and undermining its efforts to shape the outcome of the Sudanese conflict. Saudi Arabia’s success in forging a regional consensus underscores its growing diplomatic prowess and its commitment to fostering stability in a region fraught with volatility.