As Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud enters the final year of his second term, diplomatic fault lines with a once-crucial ally are deepening into open confrontation. The United Arab Emirates, once the first foreign destination on Hassan Sheikh’s post-victory itinerary, now appears to be leading a visible political offensive against his administration.
This shift marks an extraordinary reversal. Abu Dhabi—formerly a top backer of Somalia’s post-transition leadership—has emerged as the first Gulf actor to throw its full weight behind internal opposition to Villa Somalia. The rift between the two sides, long simmering beneath diplomatic pleasantries, is now impossible to ignore.
Flashpoint: The Gordan Camp Attack
Tensions erupted publicly after the deadly February 2024 attack on Mogadishu’s General Gordan Camp, where four high-ranking Emirati officers—Colonel Mohamed Al Mansouri, Mohamed Al Shamsi, Khalifa Al Balushi, and Suleiman Al Shehhi—were killed. The UAE Defense Ministry described the incident as “an accident,” but its implications were anything but routine.
In response, Abu Dhabi abruptly suspended its military and financial support to Somali forces—a devastating blow to counterterror operations in Hirshabelle and Galmudug, where UAE-trained units had become central in the fight against Al Shabaab.
This rupture occurred despite a January 2023 bilateral defense agreement and a personal condolence visit by President Hassan Sheikh to the UAE. But the visit did little to mend relations. Emirati authorities conditioned the resumption of cooperation on a sweeping political purge in Mogadishu.
UAE’s Demands and Mogadishu’s Resistance
The UAE reportedly demanded the removal of top officials it considered politically or ideologically problematic, including:
– Mahad Mohamed Salad, then head of the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA)
– Banadir Governor Yusuf Hussein Jimale
– Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre and Minister of Education Farah Sheikh Abdulkadir, key allies of the president
Although President Hassan Sheikh dismissed both Mahad Salad and Yuusuf Hussein, Abu Dhabi refused to reinstate aid, insisting on full compliance with its demands.
Behind Villa Somalia’s defiance lies a political calculation. The president reportedly believes the UAE must first distance itself from regional actors—namely Jubaland’s Ahmed Madobe and Puntland’s Said Deni—who continue to function as proxy challengers to the Federal Government’s authority.
UAE’s New Playbook: Bolstering the Opposition
With its demands unmet, the UAE appears to have recalibrated its approach. In recent months, Somali political insiders say Abu Dhabi has discreetly begun funding opposition activities in Mogadishu—a tactical move designed to increase pressure as the country approaches its next electoral cycle.
Two strategic goals drive this intervention:
1. Force Villa Somalia to concede on political recognition of UAE-backed regional leaders
2. Cultivate a capable armed and political opposition in the capital to tip the balance of power
Villa Somalia’s Counteroffensive
President Hassan Sheikh’s administration has moved to fortify its ranks. Multiple sources confirm the government is preparing a full-spectrum political and security pushback. Reported key measures include:
– Restructuring military leadership by replacing long-serving officers with loyalists
– Reappointing Mahad Salad to NISA to spearhead counterintelligence efforts against Emirati interference
– Deepening ties with Saudi-led regional alliances, particularly those supporting Sudan’s transitional government—a signal to Abu Dhabi that Mogadishu has alternative Gulf patrons
Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre, during a recent speech marking three years of Hassan Sheikh’s Presidency, hinted that “old political manipulations” were resurfacing—a veiled swipe at UAE-linked power brokers.
A Gathering Storm: Opposition Mobilizes
Abu Dhabi is reportedly orchestrating high-level meetings with opposition figures, including prominent leaders from Puntland and Jubaland. Plans are underway to consolidate a new anti–Hassan Sheikh coalition, with large gatherings expected in Mogadishu in the coming weeks.
For Villa Somalia, this represents a direct threat. Officials warn that the UAE is not merely exerting diplomatic pressure—it is actively working to destabilize the current administration before the next election cycle begins.
A Confrontation No Longer Hidden
The political standoff between Somalia and the UAE has morphed into an overt, high-stakes geopolitical confrontation. While neither side has officially declared a break in relations, their actions speak louder than words. Mogadishu views the UAE’s maneuvers as an existential challenge; Abu Dhabi sees a presidency slipping from its control.
Analysts warn that the standoff is nearing a point of no return. In a political landscape where perception is power, the side that initiates confrontation often shapes its outcome.
President Hassan Sheikh now faces a strategic dilemma: wait for the confrontation to arrive at Villa Somalia’s gates, or take the battle to the front.