By: Abdirahman Abdi Ahmed
The world is undergoing profound shifts—from evolving global alliances and economic challenges to rising conflicts and emerging technologies such as cyber warfare. Countries everywhere are being forced to adapt swiftly.
For Somalia, these global changes arrive at a critical juncture. After years of conflict and reconstruction, the country now stands at a crossroads.
The pressing question is: will Somalia rise to the occasion? What does a nation long associated with fragility, conflict, and humanitarian crises need to seize this moment?
To grasp Somalia’s current challenges, we must first examine its past.
Somalia’s political development can be divided into three distinct stages: the civilian era, the military era, and the present period of transition and rebuilding. This journey reflects the country’s resilience amid immense adversity. While political instability, military rule, and civil war have severely tested Somalia, recent developments signal progress.
The civilian era laid the foundation for national unity; the military era was characterized by authoritarian rule and conflict; and the current phase focuses on reconstruction and state-building, emphasizing stability, governance, and development.
Despite persistent challenges, Somalia’s recovery and stabilization remain central to the aspirations of its people and the international community.
The framework of the third Somali Republic is rooted in federalism, the 4.5 clan power-sharing system, an evolving electoral model, and a constitution—all designed to promote inclusivity and balanced governance in a country marked by deep divisions.
However, this framework is under strain due to a lack of political consensus. Disagreements over power distribution, the electoral process, and the implementation of constitutional provisions threaten fragile state-building efforts. Without broader political unity, these issues could derail progress.
Somalia is one of the world’s poorest countries, facing numerous obstacles that hinder its path toward stability and development. Its population suffers from insecurity, political instability, and the growing threat of climate change, while the country remains heavily dependent on foreign aid.
Nevertheless, the international community has consistently supported Somalia through humanitarian, development, and stabilization assistance. Key milestones—such as the transition to a recognized federal government, the lifting of the arms embargo, and debt relief—have paved the way for Somalia’s participation in regional economic blocs like the East African Community.
Expectations, however, have evolved. The international community now anticipates that Somalia will build its own economic future, focusing on revenue harmonization, monetary and fiscal policies, and the development of robust financial institutions. There is a growing push for the country to shift from aid dependency to investment, trade, and self-sufficiency.
These expectations remain unmet, largely due to the absence of transformative leadership capable of guiding Somalia toward these goals.
In a global landscape marked by power diffusion, fragmented norms, and rising isolationism, Somalia faces an increasingly complex environment. Geopolitical tensions, regional conflicts, and threats such as cyber warfare and terrorism add to this volatility.
Economically, the world is navigating what is being termed an “economic war,” characterized by sanctions, trade barriers, and the realignment of financial alliances. These shifts demand leadership that can navigate complex challenges and strategically position Somalia on the global stage.
Throughout history, transformative leaders have built strong institutions, guided nations through turbulence, and led them to prosperity. Figures such as George Washington, Winston Churchill, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Nelson Mandela, Lee Kuan Yew, Otto von Bismarck, and Mahatma Gandhi are remembered for their ability to unite their nations, establish enduring institutions, and overcome adversity.
Somalia now needs such leadership—someone who can unite its people, implement meaningful reforms, and represent the country internationally.
This leadership must focus on building a resilient, self-reliant Somalia that thrives independently of foreign aid while engaging effectively with international partners. Only through such leadership can Somalia overcome its challenges and realize its potential as a sovereign and prosperous nation.
The country’s political trajectory currently appears uncertain, marked by developments that threaten national stability.
In response, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) must take proactive steps to foster national unity. A comprehensive reconciliation conference that brings together all political stakeholders—including opposition parties, federal member states, civil society, and Somali elites—is essential. This dialogue should address constitutional reform, the electoral model, and a unified counterterrorism strategy.
Consensus-building, reconciliation, and constructive dialogue must guide national leadership.
In the fight against terrorism, Jubaland State plays a critical role. As a region with a history of terrorist activity and strategic importance, it requires focused attention. President Ahmed Mohamed Islam (Madobe), with his background in security and institution-building, brings valuable experience. The FGS must actively involve him in shaping and leading the national counterterrorism strategy.
Bringing together political leaders, regional states, civil society, and elders for national dialogue is vital. Prioritizing issues such as the constitution, elections, and terrorism will safeguard Somalia’s political process and ensure lasting peace and stability.
The need for collaboration, dialogue, and shared responsibility has never been more urgent. These efforts are crucial to preserving Somalia’s sovereignty and preventing the country’s descent into chaos.
Abdirahman Abdi Ahmed, is the Minister of Planning, Investment and International Cooperation- Jubaland State of Somalia.