Since the conclusion of Kenya’s 2019 Population and Housing Census, a storm of controversy has raged across the country, with accusations of systematic population data manipulation, particularly targeting areas predominantly inhabited by the Somali community. A pivotal legal ruling on January 29, 2025, by the High Court of Kenya, invalidated the population figures for the northeastern counties of Mandera, Wajir, and Garissa, calling for a recount in these regions. This decision has once again brought to the forefront deep concerns about historical injustices, political manipulation, and the marginalization of the Somali community in Kenya’s demographic landscape.
Background: The 2019 Kenya Population and Housing Census
The 2019 Kenya Population and Housing Census revealed a national population of 47.6 million people. While the census presented a snapshot of Kenya’s demographic trends, questions were immediately raised about the accuracy of the data, particularly in regions with substantial Somali populations, such as North Eastern Kenya. This region, alongside areas like Nairobi’s Eastleigh, has seen significant demographic growth, with Eastleigh often referred to as the “Somali nerve center” of the capital.
However, critics of the census alleged that the population figures were deliberately manipulated to undercount the Somali population, effectively denying them fair political representation and equitable access to national resources. The Somali community, long subjected to a history of political and economic marginalization, saw this as another attempt to perpetuate their disenfranchisement.
Allegations of Census Manipulation
The allegations of population undercounting gained momentum in 2023 when a leaked report from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) revealed significant discrepancies in census data from Somali-dominated regions. Civil society groups, alongside Somali community leaders and elected officials from the affected regions, pointed to what they described as a deliberate attempt to suppress the numbers of Somalis in order to limit their political power and resource allocation. They argued that accurate census figures would not only lead to increased funding for development in these historically neglected regions but also would justify the creation of additional parliamentary seats, thereby amplifying the political voice of the Somali community.
The political stakes were high, given the significant impact that population data has on the allocation of resources and the creation of constituencies. The Somali community has long struggled against historical injustices, including displacement, land loss, and exclusion from national political processes. For them, a flawed census was seen as a continuation of this marginalization.
A key legal challenge was filed by Hassan Ahmed Ibrahim, a prominent Somali civil rights activist, who argued that the coding system used by the KNBS misrepresented Somali Kenyans. This misrepresentation, Ibrahim contended, would distort the allocation of national resources and electoral representation, undermining the principle of equity enshrined in Kenya’s Constitution.
Legal Challenges and Court Rulings
The legal battle over the census data began in earnest in 2023. The High Court of Kenya ruled in June of that year that the KNBS had failed to provide sufficient justification for the population figures in Somali-dominated areas, ordering a recount in these regions due to “irregularities and lack of transparency” in the census process. The court’s decision was based on the premise that accurate demographic data is essential for equitable resource distribution, particularly in regions that have been historically disadvantaged.
However, the government of President Uhuru Kenyatta appealed the ruling, arguing that a recount would be costly and would delay national planning efforts. Despite the government’s resistance, the Court of Appeal in August 2023 upheld the High Court’s decision, calling for a full recount of the disputed regions. The Court also ordered an independent audit of the 2019 census data, pointing to significant concerns over the integrity of the process.
This victory was seen as a significant moment in Kenya’s legal and political landscape, especially for the Somali community, who had long argued that census manipulation was part of a broader pattern of political exclusion.
Political Reactions: Accusations of Marginalization and Betrayal
The allegations of census manipulation ignited heated debates among Kenyan politicians and civil society groups. Prominent Somali leaders, such as former Garissa Township MP Aden Duale and former Mandera Senator Billow Kerrow, voiced strong criticisms of the government under President Uhuru Kenyatta, accusing the state of “systematic marginalization” of the Somali community. Duale, who had been a key ally of the Kenyatta administration, accused the government of intentionally distorting census data to reduce the Somali community’s political influence. Billow Kerrow described the manipulation as “a betrayal of the Constitution and the spirit of national unity.”
In contrast, some politicians dismissed the allegations as exaggerated. Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, whose eventual impeachment in 2024 was partly due to charges of “divisive rhetoric” and “tribal incitement,” publicly defended the integrity of the 2019 census. Gachagua downplayed the allegations of manipulation, urging Kenyans to focus on unity rather than divisive issues. His stance, however, drew widespread criticism, especially from those who believed that his comments reflected the very tribalism and exclusionary politics that had led to the historical injustices the Somali community had suffered.
Regional and International Implications
The controversy surrounding the 2019 census has not only had domestic political repercussions but has also attracted the attention of international bodies. Both the African Union (AU) and the United Nations (UN) have called for greater transparency and accountability in Kenya’s census process. The AU, in particular, emphasized the critical importance of accurate demographic data for long-term development planning, warning that errors in population figures could exacerbate inequality and fuel social tensions in already marginalized regions.
The UN also raised concerns about the implications of undercounting marginalized communities, highlighting that such actions could worsen already existing social divides. International observers have noted that the political manipulation of census data could undermine Kenya’s efforts to foster national unity and sustainable development.
Conclusion: A Step Toward Justice or More of the Same?
The High Court’s decision to nullify the census data for Mandera, Wajir, and Garissa represents a significant victory for those advocating for fair political representation and resource allocation in Kenya’s marginalized regions. However, this ruling is merely a step in the long struggle for justice for the Somali community, whose concerns about historical injustices and marginalization continue to shape the nation’s political and social landscape.
In the coming months, the challenge will be to ensure that the repeat census is conducted fairly, transparently, and without political interference. The question remains: will Kenya’s political class finally take concrete steps to address the historical grievances of its marginalized communities, or will they continue to perpetuate systems that exclude and silence those most in need of representation? Only time will tell.