The African Union is preparing to appoint Somalia’s former Prime Minister and Puntland President Dr. Abdiweli Mohamed Ali (Gaas) as its Special Envoy for South Sudan, a move that comes as the fragile East African nation edges dangerously closer to renewed civil war.
The appointment, reportedly championed by AU Commission Chair and respected Djiboutian diplomat Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, is said to be in its final stages, with formalities expected to be completed soon. AU officials view the move as a strategic return to proactive continental diplomacy in a region long left in IGAD’s hands.
If confirmed, Dr. Abdiweli will assume one of the most delicate portfolios on the continent, tasked with restoring dialogue and confidence between deeply fractured political camps in a country scarred by a decade of war, displacement, and broken promises.
A Crisis Deepens in Juba: Factional Rivalries and Fragile Peace
South Sudan is once again staring into the abyss.
Though the 2018 Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) still holds on paper, the country’s political landscape has fractured beneath the surface. Tensions have surged in recent weeks following a high-stakes political reshuffle by President Salva Kiir, now 73, who elevated Benjamin Bol Mel, a close ally and U.S.-sanctioned figure, to SPLM Deputy Chairperson.
The reshuffle, aired on national television, came just weeks after the United Nations warned that South Sudan was “on the brink of civil war.” Many observers see the move as part of Kiir’s long-term succession calculus, raising alarms across Juba’s political elite.
The decision has also deepened the political isolation of First Vice President Riek Machar, Kiir’s longtime rival and former rebel commander. Earlier this year, Machar was placed under de facto house arrest, accused of fomenting rebellion, an accusation his party, the SPLM-IO, vehemently denies. The group warned the move violates the 2018 peace agreement, threatening to unravel years of painstaking diplomacy.
Now, fresh fighting in the north, particularly around Nasir, a Machar stronghold, has reignited fears that South Sudan is once again slipping into the ethnic and political fault lines that fueled its 2013–2018 civil war between Dinka and Nuer forces.
Why Somalia’s Gaas May Reduce the Flames of South Sudan
Enter Dr. Abdiweli Gaas, a Somali economist, prolific politician, and one of the region’s most respected public intellectuals. A former Harvard- and George Mason–trained economist, Dr. Gaas taught as an Associate Professor at Niagara University before entering Somali politics, where he held multiple senior roles including Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Planning and International Cooperation, and ultimately Prime Minister of Somalia (2011–2012) under the country’s Transitional Federal Government.
In 2014, he was elected President of Puntland, where he governed during a critical phase of federalization and stabilization. His legacy is defined by policy pragmatism, quiet diplomacy, and state-building in the face of fragility.
Dr. Abdiweli’s unique profile, a blend of technocratic discipline and post-conflict governance, makes him an ideal envoy at a time when South Sudan needs neutral mediation, not foreign pressure.
And Somalia, despite its own tumultuous past, is viewed by many factions in South Sudan as politically non-aligned and regionally credible. Unlike Ethiopia or Sudan, nations often seen as partial actors in Juba’s internal rivalries, Somalia’s position allows it to act as a trusted bridge between camps.
“Somalia understands the pain of failed politics and the hope of fragile peace,” said one AU diplomat involved in the appointment process. “That’s what South Sudan needs right now, not lectures, but empathy backed by strategy.”
AU Reasserts Itself in a Region at Risk
For the African Union, the appointment is also a recommitment to leadership in East Africa, where regional bloc IGAD has in recent years taken the lead in Sudan and South Sudan. By deploying a seasoned Somali statesman, the AU signals a pivot toward African-led diplomacy rooted in shared experience, not distant diplomacy.
If confirmed, Dr. Gaas will have little time to settle in.
South Sudan remains one of the world’s worst displacement crises, with more than 4 million people displaced, half abroad, half in makeshift Protection of Civilian (POC) sites. And the worsening effects of climate change, including severe flooding and drought, threaten to deepen instability. UNOCHA ranks South Sudan among the world’s five most climate-vulnerable nations.
Meanwhile, donor fatigue, internal fragmentation, and Kiir’s tightening grip raise doubts about the long-term viability of the 2018 peace agreement.
A Scholar for a Political Minefield
Though absent from the political scene in recent months, Dr. Gaas is believed to have laid the groundwork for his diplomatic return through a quiet campaign in Djibouti, one of the AU’s key diplomatic corridors. Now, he steps into a role where his experience, not just his titles, will be tested.
He understands what it means to govern without a rulebook, to lead during transition, to rebuild where institutions have collapsed.
And as South Sudan’s political temperature rises, it may take a Somali leader with no army, no agenda, and no allegiance to either camp to do what others cannot, listen, broker, and nudge the country back from the edge. In the coming weeks, the continent will be watching not only South Sudan, but the envoy sent to help it hold.