The ongoing conflict in Puntland, where local security forces are engaged with ISIS militants, has drawn significant attention from Somalis nationwide, igniting extensive discussions among the populace. Many observers are making clear comparisons between this situation and the ongoing struggle in southern Somalia, where the national army, along with local militias known as “Ma’awisley,” is entrenched in a fierce and challenging campaign against Al-Shabab.
This raises an important question: which of these two fronts is closer to securing a victory against the extremist groups, ISIS and Al-Shabab? To evaluate the chances of success, it is crucial to analyze the structural and operational differences that characterize these two military efforts.
A Comparison of Puntland’s Forces and the Ma’awisley
A significant difference between the two conflicts is found in the makeup and command structure of the forces engaged in combat. In the southern regions, the principal fighters against Al-Shabab are the Ma’awisley militias. These locally formed groups have achieved some initial success while operating independently of the Somali National Army (SNA), which is charged with coordinating large-scale military operations. Despite the federal government asserting its leadership in this endeavor, its noticeable absence from numerous battlefronts calls into question its true role.
For example, why is the operation primarily limited to the Hiiraan region? What has become of the broader offensive that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud outlined two years ago? Where did that initiative conclude? Furthermore, why have federal troops largely been absent from the combat zones? The highlighted presence of Ma’awisley forces, coupled with the lack of military actions from the Hirshabelle Federal State, indicates a disjointed strategy in counterinsurgency efforts.
In contrast, Puntland is carrying out its offensive against ISIS with a well-organized and disciplined regional security force. Unlike the Ma’awisley, Puntland’s troops operate under a defined command structure, hierarchy, and are backed by formal training and recruitment processes. This framework equips them with a level of strategic coordination that Ma’awisley forces do not possess
Although the Ma’awisley forces have garnered praise for their successes on the battlefield, they fundamentally represent a clan-based uprising fueled by local grievances. The majority of their fighters have joined the conflict primarily to liberate their communities from Al-Shabab’s control, functioning more as a grassroots resistance than a formal military entity.
This crucial distinction underscores why the Ma’awisley-led efforts against Al-Shabab in Hiraan cannot be directly compared to Puntland’s campaign against ISIS. The two differ significantly in terms of the personnel involved, the level of organizational support they receive, and the strategic coherence of their operations.
Mobilizing Public Support: Puntland vs. Ma’awisley
In the realm beyond the battlefield, public mobilization emerges as a crucial element influencing the success of military campaigns. In the context of counterinsurgency warfare, the support of civilians, who often suffer the most from terrorist activities, plays a significant role in determining the outcome of the conflict, matching the importance of military strength.
As is commonly recognized, civilian involvement in the war effort is vital. The people of Puntland have shown exceptional solidarity in completely rejecting the influx of extremist ideologies in a region that has enjoyed a sustained period of relative peace. Local religious leaders are actively engaged in fostering awareness around counterterrorism initiatives, encouraging both soldiers and community members to participate.
There are numerous instances of individuals donating blood, local enterprises providing financial support for the cause, and a clear anti-ISIS sentiment being voiced through protests, artistic expressions, and public discussions. The non-politicization of the war effort and the high degree of civic participation highlight Puntland’s readiness to confront the threat of extremism.
In contrast, the Ma’awisley face significant challenges due to the absence of centralized political and military coordination. The federal government initiated conflict in the region, only to seize control of the offensive and largely marginalize the Hirshabelle administration, which was meant to play a key role in the war effort. As a result, local clans bear the full weight of the conflict, receiving little support or strategic direction from the national level. This lack of a cohesive national strategy and the politicization of security issues jeopardize the progress achieved against Al-Shabab.
The Nature of the Adversaries: ISIS vs. Al-Shabab
Although both ISIS and Al-Shabab are recognized as terrorist groups, their organizational structures and operational capabilities vary widely. In Puntland, ISIS primarily comprises foreign combatants with minimal local backing. As a faction of a broader international jihadist network, it operates in rugged, mountainous regions, and recent initiatives have effectively disrupted its financial infrastructures and supply lines. Isolated and continually facing military pressure, ISIS in Puntland is confronting a critical threat to its survival.
In stark contrast, Al-Shabab remains a deeply entrenched force in southern Somalia, despite sharing similar extremist ideologies with ISIS. Unlike its rival, it boasts a substantial number of Somali members and commands vast territories in South Central Somalia. The group has woven itself into the fabric of local communities, having governed large regions for more than a decade and established a sophisticated financial network that sustains its operations.
This structural edge positions Al-Shabab as a significantly more potent adversary against Ma’awisley than ISIS in Puntland. Without robust federal support, Ma’awisley forces are confronted with a daunting challenge against a well-organized and resourceful foe. Absent a unified federal initiative, the conflict in southern Somalia risks stagnation, prolonging the hardships faced by local populations and allowing Al-Shabab to retain its hold on power.
Given these variables, Puntland’s initiative against ISIS seems to have a more promising route to triumph compared to the efforts of Macawiisley in their struggle against Al-Shabab.