By: Brig. Gen. Ahmed Abdullahi (Danab) and Sadia Mohamed Ubeyd
“If you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu!”
As global powers and regional competitors rush for dominance along critical maritime global trade routes, the Horn of Africa finds itself at the epicenter of a high-stakes geopolitical race. At the heart of this struggle is the Bab al-Mandab Strait, one of the world’s most vital shipping lanes connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. For Somalia, its geographical location is a position of immense strategic value, but internal political fragmentation threatens to turn that advantage into a vulnerability.
Puntland’s Strategic Geography
Puntland is uniquely situated along the Gulf of Aden to the north, and the vast Indian Ocean to the east. As the only region in Somalia bordered by two oceans, sharing its northern coastline with Somaliland and extending eastward along the national littoral, Puntland’s administration spans from Las-Qorey to Gara’ad. When evaluating Somalia’s broader geopolitical importance, Puntland is central to that strategic claim, encompassing the nation’s largest maritime territory. Since its inception, and even as a loosely organized entity prior, Puntland has independently managed its internal security.
The state has successfully contained major security threats, most notably the recent Operation Hilaac, the counter-terrorism campaign that severely degraded ISIS encroachment in the Al-Miskad mountain range. Aside from isolated pockets, Puntland remains largely secure and stable.
The Internal Rivalry Factor
Puntland and Somaliland are both located on critical coastlines along the Gulf of Aden. However, political realities on the ground complicate any cohesive national security posture. Given that a normalized relationship between Somaliland and the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) is unlikely in the near-term future, Mogadishu and Garowe cannot wait for a grand political reconciliation to address national interests. National security, especially in the maritime domain, cannot be a factor in political disputes.
Federal-Regional Dynamic
Recent friction between the FGS and Puntland stemmed from the covert, and later overt, recruitment and deployment of federal forces within Puntland. Historically, the region has operated without federal troop deployments or foreign military forces present in the area.
This maneuver ignited severe tensions, culminating in armed confrontations in some instances and fragile agreements reached in others. While the constitution provides for federally administered defense forces, the manner in which the FGS executed the deployment was a miscalculation that ultimately backfired.
Given that Puntland has autonomously managed its internal security for over a quarter of a century, the approach required prior consultation and formal agreement rather than overreach.
Constitutional and Operational Realities
A functional security architecture requires acknowledging both constitutional mandates and administrative limitations. Puntland does not possess separate international sovereignty over Somali territory, and the FGS cannot fully exercise the authority bestowed upon it without Puntland’s cooperation on the ground.
Under the constitution, four distinct domains exclusively belong to the FGS:
• Foreign Affairs: Representing the nation externally and managing international treaties.
• National Defense: Overseeing the armed forces and protecting national territorial integrity.
• Immigration and Citizenship: Regulating border control, passports, and national identity.
• Monetary Policy: Managing currency and national economic frameworks.
Despite these constitutional designations, Puntland operates as a semi-autonomous region. Its renewed declaration refusing cooperation with the FGS creates a hurdle for a unified security posture. If Somalia wants to become a serious maritime actor in the geopolitical competition unfolding, leaders across all political spectrums must recognize that current friction directly undermines national survival.
The Resurgence of Piracy Activities
Adding urgency to the imperative for cooperation is the troubling return of vessel hijackings in international waters, with captured ships subsequently steered toward Somali territorial coasts. The recent capture of roughly half a dozen vessels, some of which have since been freed, has exacerbated domestic friction, with sides trading accusations of shortcomings and even alleging direct complicity. This piracy revival is largely linked to the spillover effects of conflict in the Strait of Hormuz and the widening security crises in the Middle East. For a long time, the region enjoyed safe maritime voyages and had nearly forgotten the headline news that took the world by storm when Somalia first witnessed piracy. This is another crucial avenue that necessitates a united front.
Overcoming the Division
History demonstrates that Somalis have consistently risen as a unified force when confronted by external pressure. The current scramble for Red Sea access and re-emergence of piracy activities introduces significant geopolitical complexities to the region that necessitate a paradigm shift.
To secure Somalia’s place and safeguard its vital maritime corridor, all levels of governance must overcome domestic divisions. Federal and state institutions should leverage each other’s strengths, respect constitutional and administrative boundaries where applicable, and coordinate closely on national security matters.
The choice facing Somali leadership is significant: bridge internal divides and sit at the table as a sovereign maritime player, or remain fractured and let external actors carve up the nation’s strategic future.
Brigadier General Ahmed Abdullahi Sheikh is a security strategist and a former senior military commander, bringing extensive expertise in national security and defense.
Sadia Mohamed Ubeyd is a student of Political Science at The British University in Egypt (BUE), with a focused academic interest in regional governance, international relations, and security dynamics in the Horn of Africa.