Why the United States’ Misadvised Move to Divide Somalia is Antagonizing Africa

Millions of Somali people have been left alarmed by recent calls from foreign nations and influential lobby groups urging the United States to recognize the independence of Somaliland, a self-declared autonomous region of the Federal Republic of Somalia. This diplomatic maneuver, presented as a strategic move to counter competing geopolitical influences in Africa, risks becoming a profound miscalculation.

At a time when Africa is grappling with multiple crises, including the ongoing humanitarian catastrophe in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, such a move threatens to destabilize Somalia, undermine regional peace, erode U.S. credibility, and trigger a domino effect of unintended consequences far beyond the Horn of Africa.

A Threat to African Unity and Stability

The question of Somaliland’s recognition is not a mere diplomatic exercise; it strikes at the very foundation of Somalia’s sovereignty and African unity. More critically, it challenges a bedrock principle of continental stability: the inviolability of colonial-era borders. This principle, enshrined in the African Union (AU) Charter, was designed to prevent the balkanization of Africa and mitigate conflicts fueled by territorial fragmentation.

Recognizing Somaliland’s independence would be equivalent to an external power endorsing the secession of Texas from the United States—a reckless and destabilizing affront to national unity. Such a precedent would embolden secessionist movements across Africa, threatening to unravel decades of hard-won diplomatic consensus on state integrity.

The Fragile Realities of Somaliland

The prevailing narrative that portrays Somaliland as a unified entity in its quest for independence does not withstand scrutiny. The reality on the ground is far more complex:

SSC Regions (Sool, Sanaag, and Cayn)

Comprising over 55% of Somaliland’s claimed territory, these regions are predominantly inhabited by the Harti-Darood clans, who have unequivocally rejected secession. The 2023 uprising in Lasanod, the capital of Sool, expelled Somaliland’s forces, reinforcing their commitment to Somalia’s federal government.

Awdal Region

Representing 15% of Somaliland’s territory, Awdal is home to the Gadabursi clan, which has consistently resisted secession. Attempts by the Somaliland administration to suppress this opposition further expose the fragility of the secessionist project.

Central Somaliland

Comprising around 30% of the territory, this region is predominantly inhabited by the Isaaq clan, the main proponents of secession. Even here, internal dissent exists as broader Somali identity and historical grievances against colonial-era division continue to resonate with many.

This intricate web of opposition underscores a critical reality: Somaliland’s bid for independence does not represent the will of its entire population but rather the political ambitions of a single dominant faction. Recognizing such a fragmented entity as a sovereign state would be a direct affront to international law and an endorsement of tribal supremacy.

Somalia’s Commitment to Dialogue and Stability

For three decades, the Federal Government of Somalia has exercised strategic restraint, prioritizing dialogue over confrontation in dealing with Somaliland’s secessionist ambitions. Instead of resorting to militarization, Mogadishu has sought reconciliation and nation-building.

However, should Somaliland be granted recognition, Somalia would have little choice but to defend its territorial integrity through decisive measures:

Supporting Unionist Communities

The majority of Somaliland’s population—particularly in the SSC and Awdal regions—remains staunchly unionist. The Somali government could be compelled to support these communities militarily and politically to counter secessionist forces.

Forging New Alliances

Somalia could pivot towards rival global powers such as China, offering access to strategic ports and infrastructure in exchange for support in countering Somaliland’s independence bid. Such a shift would significantly undermine U.S. influence in the region.

Mobilizing International Opposition

Somalia could launch an aggressive diplomatic campaign within the AU, Arab League, Organization of Islamic Cooperation, and United Nations to delegitimize Somaliland’s claims while seeking punitive measures against states that recognize its independence.

While Somalia remains committed to diplomatic solutions, any recognition of Somaliland’s independence would force the federal government to take assertive action to safeguard national sovereignty and security.

The Geopolitical Risks for the United States

Beyond Somalia, the broader implications of recognizing Somaliland’s independence could be deeply destabilizing for the Horn of Africa and U.S. strategic interests:

Weakening Somalia’s Unity

Somalia is a key partner in counterterrorism and maritime security. Recognizing Somaliland would alienate Mogadishu and jeopardize ongoing security cooperation, ultimately weakening efforts against Al-Shabaab and other extremist groups.

Strengthening Extremism

Al-Shabaab thrives on division and grievance. A fragmented Somalia would provide fertile ground for extremist recruitment, reversing years of counterterrorism progress.

Regional Destabilization

Ethiopia, Djibouti, and other neighboring states would be drawn into the fray, each seeking to exploit the situation for strategic gains. Ethnic and clan-based tensions could spill over into Ethiopia’s Somali region, triggering wider instability.

Risk of Proxy Conflicts

External actors, including the UAE and Israel, have vested interests in Somaliland for strategic and military purposes. The militarization of the Red Sea region could escalate tensions among global powers, further complicating U.S. foreign policy objectives.

Lessons from History: The Perils of Reckless Interventions

The history of international interventions is littered with cautionary tales of well-intentioned but disastrous miscalculations. The U.S. invasion of Iraq (2003) and NATO’s intervention in Libya (2011) stand as stark reminders of how foreign meddling, even when framed as a means of stabilization, can plunge entire regions into prolonged turmoil. Even the recognition of South Sudan, while celebrated at the time, has since resulted in persistent internal conflicts and humanitarian crises.

Recognizing Somaliland risks replicating these failures, dismantling Somalia’s progress, and igniting a crisis that will be difficult to contain.

A Call for Diplomatic Prudence

Somalia’s sovereignty is non-negotiable. The United States must resist short-sighted calls for Somaliland’s recognition and instead champion a strategy that upholds unity, stability, and mutual partnership.

A stable and united Somalia is not just in the interest of its people—it is vital for regional peace and global security. The United States has an opportunity to reinforce its credibility as a responsible global leader by prioritizing diplomacy over division, supporting Somalia’s reconstruction, and fostering regional cooperation rather than geopolitical fragmentation.

Somalia deserves respect, not dismemberment. The path forward must be one of partnership, peace, and principled engagement, ensuring that the Horn of Africa emerges as a beacon of stability rather than a battleground of competing interests.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are exclusively those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Somali Stream.