By Abdirahman Abdishakur
How Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is dismantling federalism, eroding trust, and driving Somalia toward a dangerous political rupture
Somalia’s civil war did not merely dismantle state institutions; it destroyed something far more fundamental: trust among citizens and confidence in government.
The collapse of these two pillars, social trust and public legitimacy has defined the post-conflict challenge as profoundly as the reconstruction of formal state structures.
It was within this fragile context that federalism and the 4.5 clan-based power-sharing model were introduced. Their purpose was clear and necessary: to prevent the monopolisation of power by a single centre or clan, and to hold together a fractured society through a balanced political order.
While federalism reflects an enduring structural reality rooted in dispersed authority and divided sovereignty, the 4.5 arrangement was conceived as a temporary stabilising mechanism, not a permanent governing formula.
These frameworks were never ends in themselves. Their core purpose was to rebuild trust, to restore cohesion among clans and re-establish the state as a fair, impartial, and legitimate authority.
Yet today, Somalia faces a deepening trust crisis. State institutions remain weak, inter-clan suspicion persists, and public confidence in government is dangerously low.
In such conditions, leadership is not secondary it is decisive. Where institutions fail, leadership must compensate through integrity, restraint, and an uncompromising commitment to fairness.
IIn this context, leadership must reject the impulse to centralise power or allow it to be captured by a narrow constituency.
It must instead enforce inclusion, balance, and institutional credibility. Trust will not return unless the state is governed as a shared national enterprise governed with justice and equity.
Confidence grows only when citizens see a state that represents all and a government that serves equally, not one that privileges a few or favours a single clan.
It is against this standard that the administration of Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (HSM) must be judged.
His leadership has undermined the two foundational pillars of Somalia’s state-building project: federalism and power sharing.
Rather than strengthening these frameworks, he has widened the gap in both horizontal trust among citizens and vertical trust in the state.
This is evident in patterns of governance defined by nepotism, corruption, and anti-meritocratic practices. Public office is no longer seen as a national responsibility, but as a tool allocated through loyalty, kinship, and political expediency.
This erodes institutional credibility and reinforces the perception that the state serves narrow, sectional interests.
At the same time, HSM has actively undermined the federal system. Critical governance functions are increasingly concentrated in Mogadishu and Villa Somalia, driven by executive decrees rather than institutional norms.
Power has been monopolised in his hands, with decisions made at his whim bypassing institutions and eroding any semblance of due process. This is not mere strain; it is a systematic hollowing out of the federal compact and a deliberate dismantling of the balance it was designed to protect.
The cumulative effect is undeniable. Trust is not being rebuilt, it is being destroyed. Public confidence is not being strengthened, it is being eroded further. And instead of fostering a cohesive national identity, this approach is deepening clan divisions and reinforcing sub-national loyalties.
Somalia’s state-building project was never just about institutions; it was about restoring belief in a shared political future. When leadership abandons that purpose, the damage is not only administrative, it strikes at the core of political legitimacy.
The deepening mistrust among communities and the collapse of confidence in the state have entrenched clan identity while weakening already fragile institutions. In this condition, Somalia becomes dangerously exposed, not only to internal instability and terrorism, but also to external actors seeking to exploit division and capture national resources.
This is a defining, indeed existential moment. The current trajectory is forcing the nation into untenable choices: accept a manipulated “one person, one vote” process designed to legitimise self-extension; tolerate unconstitutional prolongation of power without credible elections; or risk sliding back into conflict.
Avoiding this outcome demands a decisive break from the politics of personal ambition, clan calculation, and narrow constituencies, and a complete shift away from transactional politics driven by personal gain and short-term expediency.
The priority must be the survival of the state, not the interests of individuals or factions.
Somalia needs principled leadership anchored in the original vision of the state-building process: leadership defined by integrity, fairness, and a proven record of consistency and clarity of purpose.
Above all, it requires a credible and reassuring national figure, one who treats all citizens equally, restores meritocracy in state institutions, and rebuilds both social trust and public confidence in the state.
Only through such a break can Somalia move from division to cohesion, from fragility to stability, and from distrust to a renewed sense of shared national purpose.