By Dr. Mohamed Ibrahim Nor, Ph.D.
There was a time when unemployment and inflation existed mainly in economics textbooks, abstract forces illustrated by charts and curves. Today, they dominate front-page headlines, shape political strategy, and increasingly function as indicators of national security. When a country cannot keep its citizens working or maintain control over the cost of living, its stability, credibility, and even sovereignty are under strain. What onceappeared to be internal economic issues became strategic vulnerabilities with global implications. The long-standing divide between economic policy and national defense is rapidly eroding, revealing a 21st-century landscape in which the economy itself serves as a battlefield. Inflation and unemployment are no longer merely macroeconomic challenges; they are potent forces capable of reshaping political orders, straining alliances, and testing a nation’s resilience. As these pressures intensify, safeguarding economic stability has become not just a matter of prosperity but also a fundamental component of national security.
The Social Shock of Unemployment
Unemployment transcends mere statistics; it serves as an indicator of a nation’s social well-being. When individuals become unemployed, they forfeit not only their income but also their stability, sense of purpose, and trust. As communitiesdeteriorate, criminal activity escalates, and dissatisfaction proliferates. The economic rationale is straightforward: a decline in aggregate demand leads to less corporate activity, resulting in layoffs. However, the societal ramifications have extended much further. Extended unemployment fosters alienation and resentment—emotions that contribute to political volatility within communities. Somalia’s experience elucidates this starkly. Prolonged violence and fragile institutions have constrained formal employment prospects, particularly for young people. Over 70% of the population is under age 30, yet young unemployment remains one of the highest globally. Unemployment is not merely an economic issue; it constitutes a national security threat. Owing to constrained opportunities, many young Somalis are susceptible to recruitment by extremist organizations or are entangled in illegal networks. In this context, employment serves as a safeguard against instability — providing dignity, a sense of belonging, and a vested interest in peace.
Inflation and the Erosion of Trust
Inflation incites anger, whereas unemployment induces fear. Escalating prices impact all individuals daily—at supermarkets, fuel stations, and market vendors. Inflation transcends just economic metrics; it constitutes a tangible experience that affects public sentiment and political stability. When prices escalate more rapidly than incomes do, purchasing power diminishes, leading to heightened frustration. Individuals start to scrutinize not only their remuneration but also the proficiency of those in positions of power. In Somalia, inflation has historically been driven by a confluence of external shocks, such as rising global food and fuel prices and internal structural inadequacies. A nation that heavily depends on imports is especially susceptible to fluctuations in international pricing or a depreciation of Somali shilling. An abrupt surge in the cost of bread or rice constitutes not merely a trivial inconvenience for households already facing difficulties; it represents an existential catastrophe. Inflation undermines the legitimacy of governments. When the average citizen is unable to meetessential needs, the assurances of peace and progress are rendered meaningless. Addressing inflation beyond mere economic management constitutes a restoration of public confidence.
Supply, Demand, and Security Equations
Both unemployment and inflation are caused by the standard supply-and-demand equation. When there is not enough demand for a product, production slows, and people lose their jobs. Prices increase when demand is greater than the economy can make. Both scenarios, even though they go in different directions, make the country less stable. The goal of economic policy is to keep that balance stable enough to support jobs without causing prices to rise. It is extremely hard to keep that balance in Somalia. Lack of infrastructure, lack of security, and the fact that informal markets are so common all limit supply. Demand is driven by remittance flows and humanitarian help, not consistent domestic spending. When things change around the world, whether a drought, a pandemic, or a currency crisis, Somalia suffers more than other countries. Strengthening the productive base, improving supply chains, and helping local businesses are not only goals for development; they are also necessary for national security.
When Economics Meets Security Policy
The inclusion of “economic resilience” in the current U.S. National Security Strategy, alongside military preparedness and cyber defense, is intentional. Economic stability is fundamental to all other dimensions of national strength. A nation cannot sustain an effective defense, assist friends, or invest in innovation if its economy is faltering due to unemployment and inflation. The narrative of Somalia’s national security has frequently been framed by military and political obstacles, combating insurgency, reinstating governance, and preserving stability. However, underlying this situation is an economic narrative: in the absence of employment, food security, and stable pricing, no degree of peacekeeping or diplomacy can maintain national cohesion. Genuine stability is achieved when the Somali economy attains resilience, when its populace possesses employment and purchasing power, when inflation is controlled, and when opportunities appear tangible. In this context, economic transformation and national security are intrinsically linked.
Conclusion: The Economics of Security
Unemployment and inflation are important signs of a country’s vulnerability that go beyond simple macroeconomic measures.When many people are out of work and families cannot meet their basic needs, the social contract starts to break down. People in communities lose faith in institutions, political divisions grow worse, and public anger creates an atmosphere that is easy to manipulate or unstable. Historical data show that civilizations that are under considerable economic stress are more likely to fall apart, not because their people are weak but because the ties that hold them together have become weaker. From this point of view, inflation and unemployment are evidence that an economy is weak and that a country is open to threats from both inside and outside. To maintain Somalia’s peacekeeping and resilience-building efforts, these two problems must be solved.Employment helps people feel included because it gives them a say in the future of the country, and price stability builds public trust by ensuring that people’s wages and livelihoods are worth something. These things are what makes a state stable and sure of itself. In Somalia, the balance of supply and demand goes beyond market theory. It is directly tied to the country’s democracy, the strength of its institutions, and the safety of its people. In the end, national security and economic stability are the same. This connection is more important than ever in Somalia’s fragile recovery.
Dr. Mohamed Ibrahim Nor is the Minister of Rural Development and Resilience in SouthWest Somalia and Former Permanent Secretary of Office of the Prime Minister.