Fresh details are emerging about the planned visit of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and a section of the opposition figures of the somali salvation to Kismayo, the stronghold of Jubaland leader Ahmed Mohamed Islam (Madobe).
The Somali presidency is preparing for President Hassan Sheikh’s trip to Kismayo in an effort to resolve the long-running dispute with Ahmed Madobe. For months, quiet negotiations have been underway aimed at reaching an understanding.
Where did the talks begin?
According to sources, it was Villa Somalia that first initiated the idea of talks with Ahmed Madobe. Neighboring countries were used as intermediaries to encourage dialogue between the two sides. Initial preconditions were gradually met both in Kismayo and Mogadishu.
As previously reported, the Somali government scaled back its military operations in Gedo and softened its rhetoric towards Jubaland and Madobe. Over the past month, as negotiations gained momentum, Ahmed Madobe also responded with reciprocal concessions.
After a visit by senior Emirati officials to Somalia, President Hassan was asked by Abu Dhabi to cooperate on two fronts: Sudan and securing Somalia’s vote at the UN Security Council in line with UAE interests.
In return, the presidency tasked the UAE with helping bridge the rift with Madobe and mending strained relations with Puntland leader Said Abdullahi Deni.
Villa Somalia has already begun implementing Emirati suggestions. For example, the presidential Facebook page quietly removed coverage of the Sudanese intelligence chief’s visit to Mogadishu, and Somalia cast against the vote at its Security Council vote against Iran.
Mogadishu has also been working behind the scenes to block any Council resolutions targeting Abu Dhabi that Sudan might propose.
The presidency’s key ask from the UAE remains: help Hassan Sheikh resolve the Kismayo and Garowe standoffs; issues he sees as critical to consolidating authority at home.
Our Somali Stream sources indicate that the UAE has invested heavily in pressuring Kismayo, leading Ahmed Madobe to finally agree to meet Hassan Sheikh. The meeting is set to take place in Kismayo. President Hassan had initially hoped to visit the city on September 15th, but Madobe declined. A new visit is being scheduled for late September or early October.
Talks have now reached a head-of-state level. Both sides have agreed on normalizing relations, resuming travel between cities, lifting restrictions on development projects, and rolling back measures taken since October 2024.
At the core of the dispute lies Madobe’s disputed re-election, which sparked the political and military tensions. President Hassan is reportedly willing to allow Madobe to remain in office, but on the condition that his controversial election is nullified. Two options are now on the table for Madobe:Accept a two-year interim mandate and withdraw his election claim and remain in power without a formal electoral process.
Both options present political risks for Madobe. Jubaland officials insist the question of leadership is strictly their internal matter and that the Federal Government should instead take responsibility for past mistakes, including the bloody Ras Kamboni clashes.
Officials inside Villa Somalia told Somali Stream that President Hassan is determined to make significant concessions if necessary, to bring Madobe back into the collapsed Somali Salvation framework and prevent him from giving further space to the opposition.
Hassan Sheikh, they noted, still recalls his November 2019 trip to Kismayo, when as an opposition leader he attended Madobe’s controversial swearing-in. Meanwhile, Kismayo is preparing to host opposition leaders, adding urgency to Hassan Sheikh’s push to arrive there first.
Somalia’s opposition is planning a major trip to Kismayo in the coming days. They are scheduled to hold talks with Jubaland authorities, led by Ahmed Madobe. While the purpose of the trip has not been officially announced, it is understood to be aimed at strengthening their political leverage and securing new alliances in their resistance to Hassan Sheikh’s rule.
For now, the opposition still lacks clearance to travel to Kismayo, as President Hassan himself is lobbying to meet Madobe first. Ultimately, both Villa Somalia and the opposition view Kismayo as a crucial political battleground. Whoever wins Ahmed Madobe’s support will secure a significant early advantage in Somalia’s high-stakes power struggle.