ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia
This weekend, all eyes across Africa will be on Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, as African leaders gather at the African Union (AU) headquarters to cast their votes for the next Chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC). The election for this prestigious position, which will shape the future of the continent, will not only be a contest of credentials and diplomatic experience but also one that highlights the leaders’ handling of Somalia – a country at the heart of East Africa and central to regional security dynamics.
Raila Odinga of Kenya and Mahamoud Ali Youssouf of Djibouti, two East African leaders with starkly different backgrounds, find themselves at the center of this critical election. Their respective records on Somalia – a nation that borders both their homelands – reveal historical blind spots that raise doubts about their ability to effectively navigate one of Africa’s longest-running political crises. Somalia’s unresolved internal conflicts and its complex relations with neighboring countries continue to pose a significant challenge for any prospective leader of the African Union. This has left African leaders questioning whether Odinga and Youssouf, despite their political clout, have the diplomatic finesse needed to manage and guide the continent through such a turbulent regional landscape.
Strengths and Shortcomings
Raila Odinga, Kenya’s former Prime Minister and a seasoned opposition leader, is widely known for his reformist agenda, which has seen him play a pivotal role in Kenya’s democratic evolution. With a history of shuttle diplomacy, Odinga advocates for a more assertive African Union focused on economic integration, youth empowerment, and climate action. Yet, his mixed record regarding Somalia raises questions about his credibility as a neutral peace broker in the region.
During his tenure as Prime Minister, Odinga was involved in mediating Somalia’s political crises. However, his long-standing ties to the separatist administration in northern Somalia – Somaliland – have often led to tension with Somalia’s central government in Mogadishu. This raises concerns about Odinga’s commitment to respecting the territorial integrity of Somalia, as enshrined in Article 4(b) of the AU’s Constitutive Act, which calls on all member states to respect the borders established at the time of independence. Could Odinga’s deep connection to Kenya’s interests and involvement in Somalia’s internal affairs undermine his ability to remain impartial in Somalia’s complex political landscape?
Kenya’s continued military involvement in Somalia as part of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) further complicates Odinga’s position. His alignment with Kenya’s interests could be perceived as a conflict of interest, leading African leaders to question whether he could fairly navigate Somalia’s security challenges and assist in reconciling its deeply fragmented political system.
On the other hand, Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, Djibouti’s long-serving Foreign Minister, presents himself as a seasoned diplomat with a strong platform of regional stability, peacekeeping, and unity. His diplomatic career has seen him play a key role in peace and mediation efforts across the Horn of Africa, but his tenure at the African Union, particularly regarding Somalia, has drawn criticism. Under his leadership, the AU has maintained its support for the African Union Mission in Somalia, but critics argue that this support has been static and has failed to adapt to Somalia’s changing security and political landscape.
In 2021, Youssouf’s government, under the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), launched a fact-finding mission to investigate allegations of Kenyan interference in Somalia’s internal affairs, particularly in the Gedo region of Jubaland. Despite overwhelming evidence of Kenyan-backed militias operating from within Kenya’s borders, Djibouti’s findings dismissed the presence of these militias and placed the blame squarely on Somalia. This report was rejected by Somalia, and the diplomatic fallout escalated when Djibouti attempted to detain Somalia’s National Security Advisor. This incident highlighted Youssouf’s tendency to take a more passive approach to complex issues, failing to decisively address the root causes of instability in Somalia.
The Dynamics of the Election
The race for the chairmanship of the African Union Commission is not just about the individuals but also a reflection of Africa’s political, linguistic, and regional divides, rooted in the continent’s colonial history. Odinga, from an Anglophone country, enjoys strong backing from East and Southern African nations, including Kenya, Uganda, and South Africa. Youssouf, a Francophone, has rallied support from West and Central African countries, with notable backing from Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, and his home country, Djibouti. The Lusophone nations, such as Angola and Mozambique, remain swing states, with their votes likely influenced by behind-the-scenes negotiations.
In contrast, several countries, such as Morocco and Egypt, seem to be abstaining from the vote due to political disagreements with the African Union. Morocco’s absence stems from its long-standing dispute with the AU over the issue of Western Sahara, while Egypt’s dissatisfaction is rooted in the AU’s handling of Nile River-related disputes. Meanwhile, Africa’s geopolitical powerhouses – Nigeria and South Africa – will play a pivotal role in shaping the outcome of the election.
It is also worth noting that six countries – Niger, Mali, Guinea, Gabon, Burkina Faso, and Sudan – are suspended from voting due to their involvement in recent military coups. This absence further complicates the electoral process, adding an additional layer of geopolitical complexity to the decision-making.
As the votes are cast, the outcome of the election will shape Africa’s trajectory for the next several years. However, for Somalia, the choice between Raila Odinga and Mahamoud Ali Youssouf presents little hope for meaningful change. Both candidates are burdened by historical legacies that cast doubts on their ability to effectively address Somalia’s ongoing political and security challenges. For Somalia, the lack of a strong, independent candidate with the vision and resolve to bring about lasting peace and stability means that the country’s unresolved issues will likely continue to haunt the African Union, regardless of the election outcome.