After a tense year of political and military brinkmanship, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has arrived in Kismayo, the capital of Jubbaland State, for long-awaited talks with regional leader Ahmed Mohamed Islam – commonly known as Ahmed Madobe.
The visit marks a significant turning point in one of the most dramatic political standoffs in Somalia’s recent history: a constitutional and electoral crisis that culminated in both leaders issuing arrest warrants for one another – a move never before seen in the Somali political arena.
This is President Hassan’s first visit to Kismayo since the standoff began. He was received at Sayid Mohamed Airport by President Madobe himself, in a gesture that suggests a thaw in relations and potential for meaningful political progress.
But what does President Hassan stand to gain from this trip? Is he heading into the political lion’s den only to be humiliated? Or does this visit signal a larger strategic recalibration by Villa Somalia?
To answer that, we must understand not just the events of the past year, but also the man who has remained at the center of it all.
Who Is Ahmed Madobe? Somalia’s Most Enduring Power Broker
Ahmed Mohamed Islam – better known by his nom de guerre Ahmed Madobe, has dominated the political landscape of southern Somalia for nearly two decades.
He first rose to prominence in 2006 as a senior figure in the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), serving as the de facto ruler of Kismayo until Ethiopian forces invaded and dismantled the ICU later that year. The following year, Madobe was arrested by Ethiopian troops in Addis Ababa but was later released after negotiations that offered him a role in the transitional government of President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, a position he ultimately rejected.
In 2008, Madobe returned to the battlefield as a commander of the Ras Kamboni militia. In alliance with Al-Shabaab, his forces briefly recaptured Kismayo. But ideological and strategic differences soon triggered a bloody rift between the two groups. By 2009, Al-Shabaab had seized full control of Kismayo and much of southern Somalia, forcing Madobe’s withdrawal.
His political comeback began in earnest on May 15, 2013, when he was elected president of the newly formed Jubbaland administration – amid fierce opposition and disputes with the federal government. Nonetheless, Madobe consolidated his grip on power, drawing strength from clan alliances and the revenue-rich Kismayo port.
Since then, he has emerged as one of the most durable and tactically astute regional leaders in Somalia.
Through war, diplomacy, and political maneuvering, Madobe has maintained control of Jubbaland for more than a decade. Despite multiple federal efforts to unseat him, no rival has succeeded in dislodging him from power.
From Alliance to Open Conflict
When Hassan Sheikh Mohamud returned to the presidency in mid-2022, he did so with the backing of a broad coalition that included Ahmed Madobe – united in opposition to former President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo.
At the time, Madobe had just under two years left in his final term. Though constitutionally barred from seeking re-election, his influence in Jubbaland remained unrivaled. Initially, he aligned with the new federal leadership and benefited from its support. But the relationship quickly soured.
Madobe refused to endorse Villa Somalia’s push for a “one person, one vote” electoral system—a pillar of Hassan Sheikh’s political agenda. Tensions peaked in November 2024, when Madobe secured another five-year term in a controversial re-election that Mogadishu immediately denounced as illegitimate.
What followed was unprecedented: On November 27, Mogadishu’s Banadir Regional Court declared Madobe a criminal and issued an arrest warrant for treason. Hours later, the Kismayo court retaliated—with its own arrest warrant for President Hassan Sheikh. Neither was enforced, but the rupture was complete.
The fallout escalated quickly. On November 28, Jubbaland formally cut ties with the federal government. A week later, federal troops were deployed to Ras Kamboni, near the Kenyan border, triggering an armed standoff. Madobe gave a seven-day ultimatum for withdrawal. When the deadline passed, violence erupted on December 11, resulting in a humiliating defeat for federal forces; some of whom reportedly fled across the Kenyan border.
In February 2025, Jubbaland revoked its recognition of the federal government. What began as a political standoff had spiraled into a full-blown constitutional crisis.
By mid-2025, Mogadishu, facing both military setbacks and growing political isolation, redirected its efforts to the Gedo region. NISA commander Abdirashid Janan was deployed to Beled Hawo, where clashes erupted again. Though Janan gained some tactical victories, the overall gains were unsustainable. Villa Somalia briefly floated plans to establish a rival Jubbaland administration, but the momentum was short-lived. Then, unexpectedly, President Hassan changed course. He abandoned confrontation—and chose dialogue.
So what does President Hassan hope to gain?
On the surface, Hassan Sheikh’s visit to Kismayo may appear symbolic. But beneath the formality lies deep political calculation.
Despite his efforts, the federal government arrives in Kismayo weakened; militarily, legally, and politically. Madobe, on the other hand, remains firmly in control: re-elected, undefeated, and increasingly aligned with opposition forces in Mogadishu.
Even former allies like Senator Ilyas Badal Gaboose, once seen as Madobe’s potential successor, have fallen out of favor spending nearly a year in detention after reportedly gaining the president’s backing to challenge Madobe’s rule.
But this trip is not merely an act of reconciliation, it’s about survival. According to sources, the agenda includes key national issues: the future of Somalia’s electoral system, constitutional amendments, federal-state relations, and joint security efforts against Al-Shabaab.
A key goal is jumpstarting voter registration for Jubbaland’s local council elections—a foundational step in Somalia’s transition from indirect to direct democracy ahead of the May 2026 national elections.
A symbolic reset—or strategic retreat?
In the end, President Hassan Sheikh’s journey to Kismayo is as much about acknowledging political reality as it is about reclaiming lost ground.
Ahmed Madobe, once an insurgent commander and Islamist strongman, now stands as one of Somalia’s most experienced and entrenched political actors. He governs a region of vital strategic and economic importance and has withstood pressure from three Somali presidents, foreign military interventions, and rival political factions.
Now, as the two men sit down face to face for the first time since their fallout, the balance of power is unmistakable: Madobe holds the cards. Villa Somalia has come to the table—late, empty-handed, and on uncertain footing.
Whether this visit results in meaningful national unity – or merely postpones the next round of political drama, remains to be seen.
But one thing is clear: the war for Jubbaland may be over, and Ahmed Madobe is still in charge.