In recent days, the presidents of Puntland and Jubaland Federal Member States of Somalia, Said Abdullahi Deni and Ahmed Mohamed Islam (Madobe), have been engaged in a series of closed-door meetings in Nairobi, Kenya.
These discussions come at a crucial time in Somalia’s political landscape, with tensions high between the Federal Government and several Federal Member States. The purpose of the talks between Deni and Madobe was to assess the national situation, align their political strategies, and formulate a unified approach in their engagement with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.
Their meeting followed public reports of continued behind-the-scenes negotiations between President Hassan Sheikh and Ahmed Madobe, prompting Deni to seek clarity and coordination before any unilateral decisions made.
After multiple sessions, the two regional leaders reached a preliminary understanding. They agreed that the continued antagonism between their administrations and the Federal Government was not yielding any political advantage. Rather than maintain the status quo of political isolation and confrontation, both Deni and Madobe concluded that a coordinated approach would be more effective in protecting their respective regional interests and influencing national decisions.
The two leaders emphasized the need for joint political action and agreed that any future negotiations with Villa Somalia should be pursued with a unified voice and strategy.
They also agreed that while each Federal Member State retains full autonomy in managing its own internal affairs, there must be greater coordination when it comes to national issues that affect the federation as a whole – most notably, the provisional constitution and the national electoral process.
This mutual understanding stemmed from a shared concern that the Federal Government might exploit divisions among regional leaders to push forward unilateral policies, especially regarding the electoral framework and constitutional amendments. Hence, they resolved to work together in responding to these critical national matters, presenting a consolidated front in any federal-level negotiations or reforms. The two have been visibly absent from the whole conversation relating to Somali elections in recent months as they remained mute.
However, despite the overall consensus, there remains a significant point of contention between the two leaders; namely, the future of Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre.
Sources close to the discussions have confirmed that this issue has yet to be resolved. Said Deni, who initially opposed Hamza’s appointment, has recently shifted his position. He now supports allowing Hamza to finalise his term in office.
Deni appears to have chosen a pragmatic approach, opting not to invest political capital in lobbying for a prime ministerial appointment based on clan affiliation or regional loyalty. His focus, instead, seems to be on broader structural reforms and maintaining Puntland’s regional autonomy during this sensitive period.
In contrast, Ahmed Madobe holds a firmer stance. He believes that a genuine reset in the relationship between Jubaland and Villa Somalia can only begin once Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre is removed from office.
According to Madobe and his close allies, Hamza represents a significant obstacle to trust-building between the Federal Government and the Member States. For Madobe, the prime minister’s dismissal is not a symbolic gesture but a necessary condition for moving forward with any political reconciliation or electoral framework discussions. This difference in views reflects deeper strategic calculations, as both leaders begin to position themselves for the post-2026 electoral landscape.
Meanwhile, sources close to the Jubaland presidency have confirmed that talks between Ahmed Madobe and President Hassan Sheikh are progressing. Madobe has reportedly expressed willingness to accept nearly all of the Federal Government’s conditions, with one major exception: any effort to renegotiate or shorten his presidential term in Jubaland.
According to insider accounts, Villa Somalia is expected to issue a formal written statement affirming Madobe’s current mandate and electoral legitimacy. This document is seen as a critical first step in any formal agreement. Jubaland’s leadership has made it clear that any suggestion from the Federal Government that undermines Madobe’s current term will immediately derail the negotiations. If Villa Somalia fails to issue a satisfactory statement or includes language that suggests revisiting Madobe’s tenure, Jubaland is prepared to withdraw from the dialogue and suspend all engagement.
One source close to Madobe put it succinctly: “Talks are progressing well, but everything depends on what is reflected in Villa Somalia’s writing. If they respect our position, we can move forward. If not, we’re back to square one, and everyone will act in their own political interest.”
The political rivalry between Somalia’s Federal President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Jubaland’s long-serving regional leader Ahmed Mohamed Islam Madobe has evolved into one of the most serious and prolonged standoffs in Somalia’s recent political history. What began as political disagreement over electoral management in late 2024 escalated into a complete breakdown in communication, constitutional defiance, and reciprocal legal action, marking a low point in federal-state relations.
The origins of this deepening conflict can be traced back to November 2024, when Jubaland held regional elections and re-elected Ahmed Madobe for a third term as president of the state. The vote, conducted in Kismayo, the administrative capital of Jubaland, was rejected outright by the Federal Government in Mogadishu, which argued that the election had been carried out without proper coordination or oversight from national institutions. President Hassan Sheikh’s administration claimed the election violated federal procedures, lacked legitimacy, and threatened Somalia’s constitutional order.
In response, Jubaland’s leadership maintained that it had every legal and constitutional right to conduct its own elections, pointing to the state’s semi-autonomous status under Somalia’s federal structure. What was initially framed as a legal and procedural dispute quickly spiraled into political warfare. Within days, Mogadishu issued an arrest warrant for President Ahmed Madobe, accusing him of undermining national unity and posing a threat to the state. This move triggered immediate and fierce backlash from Jubaland.
In a defiant countermeasure, Jubaland’s regional authorities held a cabinet meeting in Kismayo and issued their own arrest warrant for President Hassan Sheikh, turning what had been an intergovernmental disagreement into an open political standoff. In that same session, Jubaland formally announced it was severing all ties with the Federal Government, declaring that it would no longer recognize the authority of Mogadishu nor participate in any of its national processes.
The statement issued after the meeting went further, accusing President Hassan Sheikh of abusing power, violating the federal constitution, and undermining the delicate federal arrangement that had been painstakingly developed over the past two decades. The Jubaland government reaffirmed its commitment to protecting the unity of its own people and called for national efforts to “save Somalia’s fragile statehood and state-building process,” a clear rebuke to the federal leadership.
Throughout 2025, both administrations have largely ignored each other’s existence, with no formal contact, no intergovernmental cooperation, and open hostility expressed through media and legal institutions. The mutual arrest warrants symbolized the collapse of institutional respect and constitutional dialogue between the federal and regional governments.
Efforts by international actors to mediate have made limited progress. While there have been behind-the-scenes attempts to reconcile, particularly involving Ahmed Madobe and President Hassan Sheikh in late 2025, sources close to the discussions confirm that any agreement remains contingent on highly sensitive issues, such as term limits, recognition of regional leadership, and the future of Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre, who is seen by Madobe as a barrier to trust.
Despite these differences, both Puntland and Jubaland have agreed to work together on any mutual understandings they reach with the Federal Government. They have committed to supporting one another in ensuring that agreements are implemented and that Villa Somalia is held accountable for any promises made. The success of their joint approach now hinges on how the Federal Government responds, particularly in formalizing its position on the status of regional leadership and the broader issues of national reconciliation and electoral reform.