The situation in the Horn of Africa between 2022 and 2025 has been marked by political instability, conflict, and ongoing security challenges. In Somalia, the federal government, led by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, has been struggling with internal divisions, particularly with the Federal Member States, including Jubbaland, Puntland, and Somaliland.
Tensions between the central government and these regions have worsened, with delayed elections looming as rival factions prepare for potential clashes. Furthermore, the government’s inability to address allegations of misappropriation of public funds and its failure to deliver on economic reforms have compounded the challenges.
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s reign has been dominated by internal divisions, particularly with the Federal Member States, including Jubbaland, Puntland, and Somaliland
One of the most significant threats to Somalia’s stability remains the resurgence of Al-Shabaab, which continues to control parts of central and southern Somalia. Despite the military gains made by the Somali National Army and African Union forces in 2022, Al-Shabaab has regained territory and remains a formidable force in the region. The group’s insurgency is not only a security concern but also a source of deep political division, as it exploits Somalia’s internal instability.
One of the most baffling recent remarks from Mogadishu, was the thoughts raised by Ali Omar, the State Minister of Foreign Affairs of Somalia, who expressed Somalia’s efforts for involvement in peace negotiations, to resolve the ongoing conflict in Sudan, which erupted in April 2023 between the Sudanese military and the Rapid Support Forces, is indeed more complex than Somalia’s internal challenges.
The Sudanese war has multiple actors, including Sudanese factions, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and even Ethiopia, a country with which Somalia has historically had strained relations. Given Somalia’s limited diplomatic influence, its role as a negotiator in Sudan’s peace process remains questionable, especially as it deals with its own political and security issues.
Somalia’s non-permanent membership on the UN Security Council does offer some leverage but remains limited in its ability to mediate a conflict of such magnitude, especially when its own government faces significant credibility issues. The international community may question Somalia’s capacity to broker peace in Sudan while its own security situation remains fragile.
With Al-Shabaab regaining territory and the Somali government’s ongoing struggles with internal political crises, Somalia may be better served by focusing on stabilizing its domestic situation before taking on an international peace role.
In summary, while Somalia’s intentions to engage in Sudanese peace talks are commendable, it is crucial for the government to prioritize its internal issues, particularly the rise of Al-Shabaab, the political fragmentation, and the country’s constitutional crisis. The focus should be on restoring stability within Somalia before becoming embroiled in external conflicts that it is ill-equipped to manage.