Is President Hassan Sheikh buying time to stabilize Somalia or simply rewriting the clock to stay in power?
In Somalia’s fragile political theatre, history rarely ends; it merely repeats with new actors. More than a decade since the country’s first peaceful transition of power in 2012, Mogadishu once again finds itself consumed by a familiar storm: rumors of a presidential term extension.
Whispers from inside Villa Somalia; the seat of the presidency, suggest that emissaries close to President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud have begun discreet meetings with key opposition figures and Federal Member States’ leaders to explore a possible two-year extension of his mandate.
The talks, though officially denied, carry an unmistakable scent of déjà vu. Each time Somalia edges toward an election, the political clock seems to slow, laws blur into negotiations, and the language of “stability” becomes the pretext for stretching power.
Somalia’s democratic experiences, reborn in 2012, began with cautious optimism. That year, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud became the first president elected inside the country since state collapse, a symbolic end to two decades of warlord politics.
But optimism proved fleeting. By the 2016 election cycle, political disagreements and logistical failures delayed the vote by months, forcing an informal extension of mandates across parliament and the executive. The justification was familiar: security, technical readiness, and consensus.
Then came the crisis of 2021, when former President Mohamed Abdullahi “Farmaajo” and his allies pushed through a controversial two-year term extension via parliament, a move that tore open the country’s fault lines, threatened deadly clashes in Mogadishu, and nearly unraveled the fragile federal system. Under intense regional and international pressure, Farmaajo backed down, but the episode scarred Somalia’s political culture and deepened public mistrust.
Now, with whispers of a new extension under Hassan Sheikh, many Somalis fear the country could again drift toward confrontation.
According to political insiders, the current maneuvering began quietly. Presidential envoys have been holding closed-door meetings with opposition leaders under the pretext of “national dialogue.” In reality, many believe the goal is to secure tacit acceptance of a two-year extension justified by delays in electoral reforms, disputes among Federal Member States, and the incomplete transition to a one-person-one-vote system.
For a leader who came to power promising to “fix the process,” through democracy, the irony is sharp. Hassan Sheikh now finds himself cornered by the very machinery he vowed to reform. His allies argue that extending the term is not about clinging to power but about “saving Somalia from chaos.” Yet critics warn that this logic has always been Somalia’s slippery slope. Every extension, however rationalized, chips away at trust, weakens institutions, and emboldens those who see politics as negotiation rather than duty.
To pull off any extension, Hassan Sheikh must thread a needle that has torn many before him. Key to his strategy are the Federal Member States, especially Puntland and Jubaland, whose leaders Deni and Madobe, have long clashed with Mogadishu over power-sharing and resource control. Both boycotted the National Consultative Council, leaving the president’s legitimacy to manage national elections on uncertain footing.
Before or early November, Hassan Sheikh is expected to return to Kismayo, the stronghold of Ahmed Madobe, in a bid to rebuild trust or, as some whisper, to secure political survival. Without the cooperation of Ahmed Madobe and Puntland’s Said Deni, any attempt at a term extension will likely collapse under regional resistance.
But reconciliation carries its own risks. Inside Villa Somalia, some of the president’s closest allies fear that outreach to the opposition and regional leaders could alienate his loyalists, many of whom helped rebuild his political capital since 2022.
Split Within National Salvation: Opposition Divided Over How to Respond
The Council of National Salvation (Madasha Samatabixinta Soomaaliyeed), once the nerve center of opposition coordination, is now split over how to respond to the president’s rumored extension plan.
Private exchanges among the group’s members and secretariat reveal sharp divisions. Former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, ex–Prime Minister Abdi Farah Shirdoon, and Wadajir Party leader Abdirahman Abdishakur are pressing for an immediate, coordinated rejection of any extension attempt, arguing that silence would amount to complicity.
But others, including former Prime Ministers Hassan Ali Khaire and Mohamed Hussein Roble, are reportedly counseling caution. They view the extension talk as “politically unfounded” and warn that reacting too aggressively could lend legitimacy to Villa Somalia’s maneuvering.
Despite their differences, members of the Madasha have agreed on one principle; to oppose any formal extension of the current term. What remains deeply contested is how to confront it: through public mobilization, diplomatic lobbying, or quiet political containment.
This fragmentation within the opposition has, in turn, emboldened the presidency. “The opposition is arguing about how to resist while Villa Somalia is already three steps ahead,” as observed.
The International Stakeholders’ Dilemma
Somalia’s international partners are watching closely, and uneasily. Over 60 percent of the country’s budget comes from external donors including the United States, the European Union, and the IMF/World Bank, who have historically viewed political extensions as a red flag for instability.
Western diplomats fear that another extension would undermine Somalia’s democratic progress just as the African Union’s AUSSOM mission winds down, transferring full security responsibility to Somali forces.
Washington, in particular, remains cautious. Officials privately warn that extending the presidential term could erode donor trust and weaken Somalia’s position in debt relief and stabilization programs.
The timing could not be more delicate. In October 2024, the United Nations Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 2753 (2024), approving the transformation of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) into the United Nations Transitional Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNTAMS). Under the resolution, the new mission already transitioned on 1 November 2024, implementing the first phase of its drawdown through 31 October 2025, with a full termination of the mandate by 31 October 2026.
Diplomatic observers note that this timetable was designed to coincide with Somalia’s anticipated political transition and democratic elections; not an extended presidency. Any alteration to that timeline, analysts warn, could disrupt the international community’s phased exit strategy, complicate security planning, and potentially leave Somalia politically exposed at a moment when UN and AU footprints are receding.
For Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, the coming months could define not just his presidency but the legacy of Somalia’s post-conflict democracy. Supporters frame his moves as pragmatic statecraft; a way to preserve unity amid fragmented politics and fragile institutions. Detractors see a leader once again seduced by the lure of time, walking the same path that undid his predecessors.
Somalia’s political story since 2012 has been one of hope repeatedly undermined by hesitation; a democracy always promised, rarely delivered. Each extension justified in the name of order has instead deepened mistrust, hardened rivalries, and blurred accountability. As Mogadishu buzzes with speculation and alliances quietly realign, one question echoes through Somalia’s political salons and donor corridors alike.