Once again, the Gedo region has become the center of violent clashes. This conflict has displaced hundreds of thousands of people, forcing them to flee to neighboring Kenya and Ethiopia, and has caused severe economic hardship. This situation perfectly illustrates the intricate web of Somalia’s political landscape, where local governance, federal authority, and the presence of armed groups converge. The ongoing struggle highlights the immense difficulty of establishing a cohesive national government amid deep fragmentation and competing interests.
Let me break down the multifaceted crisis in Gedo, examining how historical political failures and complex clan dynamics have fueled a proxy war between the Somali Federal Government (SFG) in Mogadishu and the Jubaland administration in Kismayo.
The Roots of a Crisis: Why Gedo is a Flashpoint
Gedo’s volatility stems from a combination of political, geographical, and historical factors. The region’s border with Kenya and Ethiopia introduces significant external influences, as both countries view Gedo as a critical buffer against threats like Al-Shabaab. This has led to a long history of external interference, with neighboring nations using a “divide-and-rule” strategy by empowering specific clan militias since 1996.
This external meddling, combined with the central government’s struggle for control, has led to a breakdown of local leadership. Both political elites and traditional elders have struggled to effectively engage with the local population, leaving a power vacuum that competing forces are eager to fill. The ongoing tug-of-war disrupts trade routes and economic stability, transforming a vibrant economic hub into a theater of conflict. Gedo’s strategic location makes it a vital transit point for trade between Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia, making control of the region a high-stakes prize.
Gedo’s Unique Social, Economic, and Cultural Fabric
To understand the conflict, one must first appreciate Gedo’s distinctive identity. Its social and economic characteristics are not separate from the political dynamics; they are the very ground upon which the conflict is fought.
Social Structure: Gedo is inhabited by a diverse range of clans, with the Marehan subclan of the Daarood being the most prominent. Clan loyalty often takes precedence over national allegiance, leading to localized power struggles over resources and influence. Despite facing immense challenges from droughts and conflict, the people of Gedo have shown remarkable resilience, relying on traditional social structures where elders often act as mediators in disputes.
Economic Dependence: The economy is predominantly pastoral, with livestock herding being the main source of livelihood. However, due to frequent droughts and conflict, the region is heavily reliant on humanitarian assistance from NGOs and international organizations, a dependency that can create its own vulnerabilities.
Cultural Background: Gedo is rich in cultural traditions, including poetry and storytelling that preserve history and community identity. Yet, the ongoing conflict has led to shifts in cultural identity, particularly among the youth. Exposure to violence and displacement can foster feelings of alienation, making the preservation of cultural heritage an essential element of resilience.
The Flawed Foundation of Federalism in Somalia
The present-day conflict is a direct consequence of Somalia’s tumultuous journey toward a federal system. After the collapse of the central government in 1991, various clans took control of different regions, highlighting the need for a new governance structure.
In 2012, a new Provisional Federal Constitution was adopted, aimed at decentralizing power and service delivery. This framework led to the formation of several Federal Member States (FMS), including Jubaland. However, this process was deeply flawed. Somalia’s first post transition President, Dr. Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, oversaw the creation of these states, but it was done without proper adherence to procedure or, more importantly, without fostering reconciliation among the grassroots communities. This oversight has led to escalating clan tensions, particularly in Hirshabelle and Jubaland.
The establishment of Jubaland was especially fraught with violence and a lack of consensus. President Hassan Sheikh did not adequately address the grievances or initiate comprehensive conflict resolution efforts. Consequently, Jubaland has emerged as one of Somalia’s most fragile states, where clan dynamics are increasingly unstable.
The Battle for Control: Jubaland vs. the Federal Government
Jubaland, led by President Ahmed Mohamed Islam (popularly known as Madobe), has long sought a degree of independence from Mogadishu. The relationship between Madobe’s administration and the FGS has been defined by tension over authority, resource distribution, and security.
The conflict in Gedo is a direct reflection of this power struggle. Following Madobe’s controversial re-election in 2019 and 2024, the FGS issued an arrest warrant for him on charges of treason. The FGS’s military incursions into Gedo were not merely a military operation but a political maneuver to undermine Madobe’s administration and reassert federal influence. Violent clashes, such as those in Dolow in late 2024 and mid-2025, have become a tragic and recurring consequence of this battle for control.
This proxy conflict has a devastating impact on the local population. During President Hassan’s second term, the Gedo region was hit hard by natural disasters, including floods that destroyed two vital bridges in Bardheere and Buurdhubo. These bridges were critical links to other parts of Somalia and its neighbors. Tragically, in the midst of this humanitarian crisis, no government institution—from the federal presidency to the Jubaland administration—has prioritized the rehabilitation of these bridges. Instead, they continue to fuel tensions and a proxy war, demonstrating a stark disregard for the welfare of the community.
The situation in Gedo serves as a powerful reminder that the true costs of political power struggles are borne by the most vulnerable. What solutions do you believe could genuinely address the deep-seated political grievances while also promoting national unity?
Impact of Clashes between Jubaland and FGS to the people of Gedo
Local boats used by traders and Humanitarian partners as the only Means of transportation in Baardhere transporting Food commodities to the other side of the town.
Conclusion and Way Forward
The Gedo region exemplifies the intricate interplay of clan loyalties, traditional authority, regional autonomy, and external influences that drive Somalia’s ongoing conflict. Its social fabric, economic reliance on pastoralism and trade, and cultural richness are deeply intertwined with political fragility and governance challenges. Recent military confrontations, particularly the Federal Government’s incursions into Gedo, have led to significant loss of life, widespread displacement, destruction of homes, places of worship, and health facilities, as well as a weakening of local leadership, all of which have intensified regional instability. External actors, including neighboring countries, further complicate local dynamics, hindering efforts for peace and stability.
For sustainable peace, it is essential to acknowledge the pivotal role of traditional clans and community leadership in governance and conflict resolution within the region. The legitimacy and respect commanded by traditional leaders, such as the Ugas and their sub-clan heads, are foundational to Somali society and must be integrated into formal peacebuilding initiatives. By recognizing and empowering these leaders, dialogue can be facilitated, disputes mediated, and social cohesion fostered. Engaging these influential figures in peace processes will enhance community buy-in and legitimacy. Without their involvement, any attempts at reconciliation or political stability risk alienating crucial segments of the population and undermining long-term peace.
Promote Inclusive Governance, Dialogue and Strengthen Local Governance
Establish platforms that facilitate constructive dialogue among political elites, clan elders, and traditional authorities. These forums should focus on addressing political grievances, clarifying governance roles, and building consensus on regional development and security initiatives.
Support the creation of local governance institutions that seamlessly integrate clan-based authority with formal state structures. This hybrid approach can harness traditional authority while promoting accountability, transparency, and effective service delivery.
The region has endured over 30 years of military-led governance. As the country shifts towards decentralizing service delivery and distributing national government authorities from the federal level to districts and villages, Gedo should be prepared to initiate the council formation process in its districts. This will allow for the election of district commissioners and their administrative teams, moving away from military-led political nominations from both Jubaland and the Federal Government of Somalia.
Osman Mohamed Noor is a dedicated humanitarian professional with over 14 years of experience in local governance, service delivery, and human rights advocacy.
