The streets of Beled Hawo erupted in violence as forces loyal to Somalia’s federal government clashed with troops from the regional state of Jubaland. The battle for this strategic border town is more than just a skirmish; it’s the latest move in a high-stakes political chess match between President Hassan Sheikh in Mogadishu and Jubaland’s powerful leader, Ahmed Madobe.
After hours of fighting, federal forces were reportedly pushed back, leaving at least seven dead and over ten wounded. This clash wasn’t random. It was the direct result of Mogadishu’s attempt to seize control of the region by deploying troops and a controversial commander to oust Madobe’s influence.
The man at the center of this storm is Abdirashid Hassan Abdinur, better known as Janan. He and his forces now hold a position near the Kenyan border, a tense standoff line in a conflict that neighboring Kenya and Ethiopia are watching nervously, urging all sides to pull back before the violence spills over.
A High-Stakes Gamble
For President Hassan Sheikh, controlling the Gedo region is a top priority. Its key towns, Dolow and Beled Hawo, form a strategic triangle bordering both Kenya and Ethiopia, making them vital for trade and security.
Furious over Madobe’s re-election last year, the president’s administration has been working to isolate Gedo and pry it away from Jubaland’s control. They imposed, lifted, and then re-imposed a flight ban, strangling movement between Gedo and Madobe’s power base in Kismayo.
But the government’s boldest move was appointing Janan as the new “Head of Stabilization” for Gedo. Reporting directly to the national intelligence agency (NISA), Janan now wields immense authority, effectively making him the region’s new strongman.
The Janan Factor: A Political Wild Card
Janan is one of Somalia’s most controversial and unpredictable figures. A political chameleon, he has a long history of switching loyalties to suit his needs.
He was once Gedo’s most powerful politician before becoming Jubaland’s security minister under the very same Ahmed Madobe he now opposes. During the previous federal administration, he was again at the center of the conflict between Mogadishu and Jubaland, sometimes fighting for the government and sometimes fighting against it.
Despite serious accusations of human rights abuses and war crimes during his time in power, Janan has never faced justice. By bringing him back, President Hassan is sending a clear and dangerous message to Ahmed Madobe: the time for talking is over. The plan is no longer diplomacy; it’s to settle this with force.
What’s remarkable is how little has changed. The political players remain the same, the prize—control of Gedo—remains the same, and the strategy of using proxy forces and controversial figures like Janan persists. Today mirrors yesterday, and the future of Jubaland will be determined by who can prevail in this longstanding struggle; a victory no one has ever achieved through military means.