A growing political rift is emerging at the top of Somalia’s leadership, as tensions deepen between President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and the Speaker of Parliament, Adan Mohamed Nur Madobe, amid an escalating power struggle over the future leadership of Southwest State of Somalia.
The friction reportedly intensified following President Mohamud’s recent diplomatic trip to Djibouti City, where he held regional talks. Since that visit, political insiders say mistrust has been growing between the presidency in Villa Somalia and the powerful parliamentary speaker.
According to sources familiar with the discussions, President Mohamud and Speaker Madobe had previously reached a quiet understanding: if the federal government moved to replace Southwest State President Abdiasis Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen, Madobe would be backed as the next regional leader. But the Djibouti trip appears to have exposed a shift in strategy.
Officials now say Villa Somalia has been quietly preparing Ports Minister Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur as its preferred candidate to take over the Southwest presidency, a move that has rattled Madobe’s camp.
Ironically, Nur is considered part of the same political power-sharing bloc as Madobe, yet he now appears to have emerged as the federal government’s top choice.
The ports minister is also believed to be involved in coordinating political opposition movements in Mogadishu aimed at weakening the current Southwest leadership.
Complicating the political chessboard even further, Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre is reportedly suspected of leaning toward another figure, Livestock Minister Hassan Hussein Elay, though sources say the prime minister is ultimately expected to align with the president’s final decision.
The competing preferences inside the federal leadership have fueled speculation that internal divisions are widening within the ruling political camp.
Meanwhile, Speaker Madobe appears to be recalibrating his alliances. Sources say he has held private discussions with Southwest President Abdiasis Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen, with mediation reportedly led by influential Southwest political figure Adan Mohamed Nur Saransoor.
The talks reportedly produced a shared understanding: both sides would work together to block Villa Somalia’s political maneuvering and defend Laftagareen’s position.
The emerging alliance marks a dramatic shift in Somalia’s political landscape, potentially uniting two powerful figures against the federal presidency.
At the same time, the federal government is said to be stepping up pressure on the Southwest administration. Sources say officials in Mogadishu have attempted to intervene in revenue collection centers in the district of Afgooye, a key economic hub linked to Southwest State.
Federal authorities have also reportedly summoned senior military and police commanders serving in Southwest regions, a move widely interpreted as an attempt to weaken the regional government’s security influence.
The growing distrust between President Mohamud and Speaker Madobe adds another layer of uncertainty to Somalia’s already tense political environment.
With regional administrations in Kismayo and Garowe already at odds with the federal government, the dispute over Southwest State threatens to widen the political front against Mogadishu.
If the fragile alliances inside the federal leadership fracture further, analysts warn the power struggle could reshape Somalia’s political balance just weeks before key institutional mandates approach their expiration dates.