The race to become the next Speaker of Somalia’s House of the People has entered a new and increasingly competitive phase, exposing fault lines within the governing establishment and triggering an intense lobbying effort among the country’s political heavyweights.
What was initially expected to be a routine succession following the departure of former Speaker Sheikh Adan Mohamed Nur (Madobe) has rapidly evolved into a high-stakes political battle involving the Presidency, the Prime Minister’s Office, influential parliamentary blocs and an expanding field of contenders seeking one of the most powerful offices in the Federal Republic.
According to sources familiar with the discussions, a high-level meeting held at Villa Somalia brought together President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre, Acting Speaker Sadia Yasin Haji Samatar and former Speaker Adan Mohamed Nur (Madobe) as consultations over the future leadership of the House gathered pace.
The meeting appears to have confirmed what many MPs had already begun to suspect: there is no clear consensus within the leadership over who should inherit the Speaker’s gavel.
Madobe Backs Jama
At the centre of the latest manoeuvring is former Speaker Adan Madobe, whose influence within Parliament remains considerable despite his transition to the leadership of South West State.
Sources say Madobe strongly advocated for the appointment of Ports and Maritime Transport Minister Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur (Jama), arguing that he is the candidate best placed to preserve parliamentary stability and maintain the close working relationship that has existed between the Executive and Legislature in recent years.
His position is understood to align closely with that of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who is increasingly viewed within political circles as favouring Jama’s candidacy.
Supporters portray Jama as political operator capable of safeguarding the Government’s legislative programme at a critical moment in Somalia’s political transition. However, enthusiasm for Jama within parts of Villa Somalia has not translated into universal support across Parliament.
Prime Minister Charts a Different Course
Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre is understood to favour a different candidate.
Sources familiar with the consultations indicate that the Prime Minister has thrown his support behind Foreign Minister Abdisalam Abdi Ali (Dhaay), whom he regards as the strongest candidate to build parliamentary consensus and manage an increasingly fragmented political landscape.
Dhaay’s supporters believe he possesses an important advantage beyond the Prime Minister’s backing.
The Foreign Minister is also expected to draw backing from MPs representing Somaliland constituencies, thanks to his maternal and in-law lineage, which could provide him with a substantial parliamentary base as the race gains momentum.
Political observers say his immediate challenge will be navigating an increasingly determined effort by rival camps led by Aden Madobe to block his path to the speakership.
Acting Speaker holds key influence
Meanwhile, Acting Speaker Saadiya Yasin Haji Samatar has emerged as a potentially decisive figure in the race.
Sources indicate that she has reservations about Jama’s candidacy, viewing him as a political figure unlikely to accommodate competing centres of influence within Parliament. Sadia Haji’s camp believes that Dhaay and Saadaat would be stronger options than Jama.
Some lawmakers also point to his close relationship with the President as a factor that could further strengthen executive influence over legislative affairs.
As the current custodian of parliamentary proceedings, Sadia’s views carry considerable weight and could prove influential in shaping alliances ahead of any vote.
Saadat Aliyow Sees an Opening
The growing divisions within the governing camp have not gone unnoticed by opposition figures.
State Minister for Interior Saadaad Mohamed Nur Aliyow is understood to be steadily building support among MPs and is increasingly viewed as a serious contender.
His supporters argue that he could emerge as a compromise candidate should divisions among the leading camps deepen. Saadat remains a potential choice for PM Hamza if he fails to secure enough backing for Abdisalam Dhaay. He also enjoys strong support from Bur-Hakaba MPs, as he comes from Eelaay, a subclan of the Mirifle’s eighth branch.
At the same time, former ministers and current MPs Isaaq Mohamed Mursal (Fanax) and Salah Sharif Siidkey have both declared their intention to contest the position, hoping to capitalise on concerns among some legislators about excessive executive influence over Parliament.
While neither is currently considered a frontrunner, Somalia’s parliamentary politics has often produced unexpected outcomes when voting blocs become fragmented and alliances shift at the last minute.
The race is unfolding at a particularly sensitive moment for Somalia.
The next Speaker will preside over parliamentary deliberations on some of the most consequential issues facing the country, including electoral arrangements, constitutional reforms and the management of an increasingly contested political transition.
For President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, securing an ally in the Speaker’s chair would strengthen his ability to advance key legislative priorities.
For Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre, the contest offers an opportunity to consolidate his own influence within the governing structure.
For opposition MPs, it represents a chance to reshape the balance of power inside Parliament and challenge the dominance of the executive branch.
What is becoming increasingly apparent is that this is no longer simply a race to replace a Speaker.
It is a broader struggle over who will control Parliament’s agenda and, by extension, influence the direction of Somalia’s politics during a period of profound political significance.
Further consultations are expected once President Hassan Sheikh returns from Kenya.
By then, it is expected alliances to have hardened, lobbying efforts to have intensified and the contest for the Speakership to have become even more fiercely contested.
For now, Mogadishu’s political establishment is engaged in a familiar exercise: counting votes, building coalitions and positioning for a parliamentary battle whose outcome could shape Somalia’s political landscape for years to come.