I recently sat with a group of intellectuals and young people, engaging in a debate that captured the crossroads our nation faces. The discussion circled around Somalia’s current political deadlock. Some in the group argued that Somalia’s salvation lies in a centralized system of governance, calling for the immediate dismantling of our federal structure. They insisted that a single president with unchecked power is precisely what we require to break the status quo. Ironically, some of these same individuals lived through the Siad Barre regime and experienced firsthand the devastating, bloody consequences of a centralized dictatorship—the unchecked power of one man, and a nation steered purely by the personal whims and raw instincts of a single ruler.
To understand why this line of thinking is so dangerous, we must look at the three political paradigms that define state survival. Some nations exist entirely without law and order—a state of chronic chaos where central authority has collapsed and factional power rules by the gun. Other states operate under the ‘rule by law,’ a system where autocratic rulers establish legal frameworks strictly to control and suppress the masses, while the ruling elite remains completely exempt from those very laws. There are also states governed by the genuine ‘rule of law,’ where the constitutional framework is supreme, binding everyone—both the general public and those in power—equally. No one stands above it.
History warns us that sliding backward from a state of rule by law into absolute chaos is terrifyingly easy. It happens the moment the centralized ruler or ruling clique weakens, or when the systemic fear keeping the population in check dissolves. Because autocracy relies on coercion rather than institutional legitimacy, the illusion of order vanishes instantly under pressure. Without independent courts, a representative governance structure, or a trusted administrative framework that enjoys genuine public confidence, there are no structural safety nets to absorb political shocks. The moment the authoritarian ceiling cracks, the administration collapses inward, rapidly triggering institutional disintegration, civil strife, and localized conflict.
Conversely, transitioning a society from the instrumentalized coercion of rule by law into the rule of law is very difficult, multi-generational ascent. This transformation demands three fundamental shifts: first, building a judicial branch with the autonomous authority and constitutional teeth required to check executive, or legislative overreach and hold political elites accountable; second, forging a deeply roots civic culture that prioritizes human rights and civil liberties above individual, clan, or factional interests; and third, transforming our collective public mindset from relying on personal or clan power to placing deep, systemic trust in the institutional supremacy of objective law. This evolutionary journey cannot be bypassed through superficial political shortcuts; it demands decades of deliberate commitment.
This is precisely why the Third Republic of Somalia is now in grave danger. When the Barre regime collapsed, total chaos ensued because there were no institutions to catch the falling state. Our existing federal system is admittedly imperfect, fragile, and far from complete, but it was designed as a critical stepping stone—a mechanism to distribute power so that a single office could never destroy the nation again. It is our only real bridge out of chaos.
Yet, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is systematically reverting this fragile governance system back into a regime of centralized rule by law—a dangerous trajectory that will ultimately slide the nation right back into structural chaos. While opposition figures and key regional stakeholders are currently resisting this consolidation of power, the wider Somali public seems strangely indifferent. This apathy stems from: a lack of grassroots mobilization, the elite capture of our political narrative, and the tragic reality that the generation that remembers the true horrors of the dictatorship is aging and passing away.
Today’s younger generation has grown up knowing only the trauma of post-1991 factional violence and institutional paralysis. Exhausted by years of political gridlock, they are understandably eager for any semblance of normalcy. But this is a deadly trap. By trading away institutional checks and balances for the illusion of authoritarian efficiency, the very latent factors that caused our historic collapse are being fed once again, undoing the hard-won political progress of the last 20 years.
We have entered a highly perilous period, and an eruption of localized violence and institutional chaos can happen at any moment. This catastrophe can only be averted if HSM is forced to halt his unilateral overreach, return to the provisional constitution, and sit down with all domestic political stakeholders to collectively steer the country out of this transition danger. Our survival depends on remembering our past, before we are forced to relive it.
Amin Jamal