Yesterday, May 15, 2026 – a date etched in the global consciousness as a symbol of solidarity with young people marks a somber milestone. The conclusion of a four-year mandate defined not by state-building, but by the systematic dismantling of the federal project. Under the administration of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, the vision of a decentralized, harmonious Somalia has been traded for a high-stakes gambit of centralist consolidation that has pushed the nation to the precipice of institutional collapse.
The Siege on Federal Member States
The hallmark of the outgoing administration has been the weaponization of political and financial leverage against Federal Member States (FMS). By exerting asymmetric pressure, Villa Somalia has sought to hollow out state autonomy, triggering unnecessary friction in an already fragile ecosystem.
The presidency has engaged in what can only be described as a domestic “cold war,” attempting to unseat established leadership through extra-constitutional means.
In Puntland, the administration attempted to sabotage the “Geedi Caano Leh” multi-party democratic initiative, predicting imminent collapse and civil strife. Instead, the opposite unfolded. Without central support and despite active obstruction, Puntland successfully conducted peaceful municipal elections, demonstrating that the appetite for grassroots democracy far outstrips the capital’s desire for control.
The recent political maneuvering in Southwest State (SWS) represents a flagrant breach of the National Charter. By attempting to install a “caretaker” through the Prime Minister’s office and engineering a victory for the Justice and Unity Party (JSP) amidst widespread reports of ballot manipulation, the administration has compromised the very legitimacy of the electoral process.
Negative Peace and the influence of Periphery states.
Somalia currently languishes in what sociologist Johan Galtung termed “negative peace”—the mere absence of active large-scale conflict, masked by pervasive fear, structural violence, and simmering tension. The political geography of Somalia today is a tale of two realities. States like Puntland and the self-declared Republic of Somaliland, by virtue of their distance from the Mogadishu-centric “gravity,” maintain a degree of developmental autonomy. Conversely, the “neighborhood states” (SWS, Jubbaland, and Galmudug) remain tethered to the whims of Villa Somalia, their survival contingent upon an extractive relationship where access to revenue and donor funds is traded for political subservience.
The Shadow of Kleptocracy
Corruption under the current tenure has evolved from an administrative flaw into a structural pillar. Recent testimonies from deposed leaders, including former SWS President Abdiaziz Laftagareen, suggest a harrowing trend: Federal Member States (The FMS) are reportedly coerced into kicking back nearly one-third of World Bank-funded aid into private accounts linked to the Presidency’s business associates. Even though an independent investigation on the allegation has not been carried out, however, signs of mismanagement of public funds are evident.
The 2025 Corruption Perception Index (CPI), released by Transparency International in February 2026, places Somalia at the nadir of global governance with a score of 9/100. This rot extends to rampant land grabbing, where public institutions—schools, clinics, and military barracks—are liquidated and handed to loyalists, leaving citizens with colonial-era title deeds watching their heritage demolished with no recourse in a compromised judiciary.
Silencing the Streets.
As the cost of living surges, the administration’s response to economic grievance has been iron-fisted. The detention and alleged mistreatment of activists like Sacdiyo Moalim, who protested fuel price hikes, underscores a closing of civic space.
While the Independent Human Rights Commission has appealed for the release of detainees and critics, their pleas remain unheeded, highlighting the toothless nature of oversight bodies under a centralized executive.
The Constitutional Stalemate and election talks
The dialogue brokered by international partners (notably the US and UK) remains paralyzed. The crux of the impasse lies in the Constitutional Review Process. The opposition rightly views the current trajectory as a vehicle for term extension rather than a genuine effort to finalize the social contract. Without a Constitutional Court to arbitrate these disputes—an organ the government has conspicuously failed to establish, the rule of law remains a secondary concern to the rule of man.
The Path to Aversion
Somalia cannot survive a return to the absolute centralism that fueled its original collapse. The solution requires a pivot toward political maturity. First and formost, the following key steps are required to prevent power vacuum in the country.
- A Transitional Roadmap: – President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud must appoint a consensus-based Premier to oversee a fair electoral transition.
- An Immediate cessation of the interference in FMS internal affairs and the restoration of the independence of the National Election Body.
- There’s a need to put hardline and uncompromising politicians accountable for their actions. If the administration continues to choose escalation over reconciliation, it risks not only domestic upheaval but the inevitable imposition of international sanctions and the total evaporation of its remaining legitimacy.
In conclusion, the federal system is not merely a policy choice; it is the only mechanism for reconciliation in a post-conflict society. To kill federalism is to kill the prospect of a united Somalia.
Mohamed Mursal Abdi is an International Relations Expert and Governance Analyst