The Gulf of Aden is a vital maritime route connecting the Red Sea, the Indian Ocean, and the Arabian Sea, and most importantly, through the Suez Canal, it forms a primary shortcut between Asia, Africa, and Europe, making it essential for global trade and energy. This strategic geographical location made Somalia the hub of global maritime and energy flow, yet rather than becoming a land of prosperity or strategic advantage, it has on several occasions led Somalia into foreign intervention and proxy warfare. Forces of foreign interests have targeted the Somali geography since the colonial division, the Cold War militarization, and the current Red Sea tensions, transforming a geographic advantage into a strategic catastrophe by undermining sovereignty, fracturing authority, and forcing Somalis to live in cycles of instability with a significant quota of outside influence. Somalia thus sits on a contested maritime lifeline, as the Bab el-Mandeb connects the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea and onward to the Suez Canal, a route that ordinarily carries about 12–15 percent of global maritime trade and significant container and hydrocarbon flows.
Colonial Partition: The First External Imposition
The strategic dilemma that is present in Somalia can be dated back to the period of colonial partitioning. At the end of the nineteenth century, British, Italian and French colonial powers divided the territories inhabited to secure ports and power on the sea routes and created British Somaliland, Italian Somaliland and French Djibouti, the British colonial government, incorporated Ogden region into Ethiopia and NDF into Kenya, rendering the vision of a unified greater Somalia, comprising of its five regions, unrealized aspirations. These divisions were not directly related to the political unity of the indigenous people; they were inspired by imperialist interests of power at sea and trade. It was a man-made split that disorganized the conventional structures of governance and planted political weakness. By the time Somalia gained independence in 1960, its borders and structures were externally convenient rather than nationally coherent, and that made it vulnerable to future foreign intervention.
Cold War Interventions and the Collapse of Civilian Rule
The Cold War intervention in Somalia should be examined in particularly the destabilization of the first civilian state in Somalia. The assassination of President Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke in 1969 and the fact that an immediate military coup headed by Mohamed Siad Barre, though the assassinationswidely portrayed as local pollical clan-based grievances, many believe that there was a calculated involvement of foreign intelligence, linking to Abdirashids change of foreign policy from the east to the west after a persuasion from his ally and prime minister Egal, who was a western educated heavy weight. The coup occurred in a highly polarized geopolitical environment. The coup turned Somalia into a powerful strategic position in the Red Sea between the Soviet interests and accelerated militarization and the autocratic government.
The Ogaden War and Superpower Abandonment
The Ogaden war demonstrates that the landmark situation of Somalia led to the disastrous proxy war. The 1977/1978 OgadenWar was far more fateful despite border clashes that had occurred in 1964. In their quest to recover Somali inhabitedterritory of Ogaden, the War against the Whole of Somalia fell into the hands of the mighty alliance that backed Ethiopia, that is, the Soviet Union, Cuba, South Yemen and Libya, who provided foot soldiers, fighter jets and advanced weaponry. Somalia’s initial offensive was successful, resulting in the liberation of large areas of territory. However, these gains were reversed by a powerful counteroffensive, driven by the direct involvement of the Warsaw Pact and its allies, which inflicted heavy losses and forced a Somali retreat. This defeat was not merely a military failure but a consequence of Cold War strategic interests. After Somalia expelled Soviet personnel, the Soviet Union shifted its full support to Somalia’s adversary,Ethiopia, while Western and NATO states remained hesitant to provide meaningful assistance. The resulting imbalance between an engaged Eastern bloc and a reluctant Western response ultimately determined the outcome of the conflict.
Rebellion Era and Externally Supported Insurgencies
Another pointer to the foreign interference in boosting the breakdown of Somalia is the post-Ogaden rebellion period. The armed opposition resistance groups which emerged in the 1980s were largely structured, trained or accommodated in the neighboring Ethiopia, which they were leveraging with to Mogadishu. The external assistance provided life to the insurgency, radicalized politics of opposition and sabotaged prospects of negotiated reform. The foreign sponsorship entrenched the factionalism instead of improving the reconciliation efforts in the country; it made violence a legitimate means of politics, resulting the collapse of Somali government in1991, after the rebels forced the president to flee the country.
Regional Buffer Zones and Erosion of Sovereignty
Due to the politics of the region, Somali sovereignty is undermined. Ethiopia and Kenya have yet to view Somalia territory as strategically like buffer zones to ensure national security interests. Ethiopian forces outside the jurisdiction of the AUSSOM continue to stay in Gedo, Bay and Bakool, as well as the Kenyan troops hang onto a significant part of the Lower and middle Juba regions. Such deployments shape local authority and shatter federal power and domestic unity.
Ethiopia’s Quest for Sea Access and the Somaliland MoU
One of the most shining examples of external exploitation of the Somali geography is the case when Ethiopia tried to gain access to the seas. Ethiopia has attempted to seek an ally for the port in order to support its economy and geopolitical location, due to being landlocked following the 1993 independence of Eritrea. An example of how neighboring states can exploit Somali territory to pursue the interests of the nation may be the controversial Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland, where Addis Ababa was granted access to the port of Berbera in exchange for political recognition. This has raised tensions between Mogadishu, which believes that Ethiopia was undermining the territoriality and federal authority of Somalia.
Red Sea Rivalries and Israel’s Recognition of Somaliland
The move by Israel to recognize Somaliland can be regarded within the framework of the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Horn of Africa competition. This move is coupled with greater maritime uncertainty brought by the attacks by the Houthis, which are disrupting shipping routes to Israel, and access to the Red Sea is a tactical issue. This comes as part of increasing military involvement in Somalia by Türkiye, which has secured a base in the country to build a state-of-the-art missile and space program. Some believe that the base will also serve as a testing site for Turkish long-range missiles, alongside constant U.S. counterterrorism operations. All of this together highlights the reality that Somalia has been turned into a chessboard, with recognition and basing, and security alliances all being leveraged with the purpose of servicing the interests of the outside world, as opposed to serving the interests of Somali stability.
Toward a Somali-Led Path Forward
A sustainable path forward requires inclusive dialogue among Somalis as a nation, rather than a fragmented state-based or elite-driven negotiations. It should be an honest process with the aim to guard Somalia against proxy entrapment, as it is being done to Sudan and Yemen. The main steps needed to restore legitimacy include, return to the 2012 constitution, a timely and agreed elections to deny foreigners to take advantage of constitutional vacuum and creating the Libyan scenario of a parallel government, enhancing inclusive governance, ensuring a regional balance in appointments of senior government positions, depoliticization of aid, and avoiding of abuse in federal powers, including, aviation, citizenship and immigration for political leverage, which erodes public trust in federal institutions and foster division and animosity within the society.
Idiris Mohamoud Hamud, is the Executive Director and Co-founder of UDUB Insights Institute, a Horn of Africa–based think tank focused on peace, governance, socio-economic development, and public discourse.